Mexico - United States Trade 2024 Q2: Surplus & Volatility
Key Market Takeaways: Mexico - United States Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Mexico and United States shows mixed growth with high volatility in Q2 2024.
- Mexico holds a $61.44B trade surplus, exporting $126.76B to the U.S. (nearly double imports of $65.32B), but June saw contractions in both directions.
- Mexico - United States trade statistics reveal deep supply chain integration, with vehicles (HS 87) dominating exports and machinery (HS 84-85) leading imports, reflecting intra-industry trade.
- Strategic interdependence is strong, as overlapping top categories highlight complementary manufacturing and technology exchange.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Mexico-United States Trade Trend in Q2 2024
Mexico Export Performance: Shipments to United States
- Total Volume: $126.76B in Q2 2024.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- Mixed YoY performance: +14.05% in April, +8.35% in May, but -5.47% in June.
- No specific trade news to explain the June contraction.
- Key Volatility: May saw an 8.8% MoM surge, while June dropped sharply (-15.12% MoM).
Mexico Import Performance: Sourcing from United States
- Total Volume: $65.32B in Q2 2024.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY growth turned negative by June (-5.34%), following a weak May (-1.07%).
- Key Volatility: April peaked with 12.27% MoM growth, but June fell -8.16% MoM.
Mexico - United States Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Trade surplus of $61.44B (Exports $126.76B vs. Imports $65.32B).
- Relationship Status: Mexico remains a strong net exporter to the U.S., with exports nearly double imports.
Mexico Import Trend from United States 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr | 22.73B | 12.27% | 12.44% |
| May | 22.20B | -2.34% | -1.07% |
| Jun | 20.39B | -8.16% | -5.34% |
| Total | 65.32B | - | - |
Mexico Export Trend to United States 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr | 42.09B | 0.74% | 14.05% |
| May | 45.80B | 8.8% | 8.35% |
| Jun | 38.87B | -15.12% | -5.47% |
| Total | 126.76B | - | - |
Get Historical Mexico United States Trade Records
Mexico-United States Top Trading Products in Q2 2024
Mexico Export Profile: What Does Mexico Sell to United States
- Top Commodity: Vehicles (HS 87) dominate exports, accounting for 25.89% of total value.
- Demand Driver: Serves the U.S. consumer market and automotive supply chains, reflecting integrated production networks.
- Concentration: The top 3 categories (HS 87, 85, 84) make up 61.83% of exports, indicating high reliance on manufactured goods.
Mexico Import Profile: What Does Mexico Buy from United States
- Top Commodity: Machinery (HS 84) leads imports at 14.36%, followed closely by vehicles (HS 87) and electrical machinery (HS 85).
- Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, with machinery and electronics (HS 84-85) comprising 25.59% of imports. Energy (HS 27) and plastics (HS 39) highlight industrial input needs.
Mexico - United States Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Deep Supply Chain Integration, with overlapping top categories (HS 84, 85, 87) suggesting intra-industry trade in machinery and vehicles.
- Value Chain Position: The U.S. holds a higher value-add position, exporting high-tech machinery (HS 84) while Mexico supplies assembled vehicles (HS 87) and components (HS 85).
Import Analysis by Product: United States to Mexico (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 84 | 9.38B | 14.36% |
| 87 | 7.40B | 11.33% |
| 85 | 7.33B | 11.23% |
| 99 | 7.07B | 10.82% |
| 27 | 6.40B | 9.80% |
| 39 | 5.10B | 7.80% |
| 90 | 2.21B | 3.38% |
| 72 | 1.66B | 2.55% |
| 73 | 1.40B | 2.15% |
| 02 | 1.35B | 2.07% |
Export Analysis by Product: Mexico to United States (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 87 | 32.82B | 25.89% |
| 85 | 23.84B | 18.81% |
| 84 | 21.71B | 17.13% |
| 99 | 7.80B | 6.16% |
| 90 | 6.68B | 5.27% |
| 94 | 3.04B | 2.39% |
| 22 | 2.92B | 2.30% |
| 39 | 2.55B | 2.01% |
| 07 | 2.53B | 2.00% |
| 08 | 2.38B | 1.88% |
Check Detailed Mexico-United States Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast
The Mexico - United States trade relationship is poised for cautious growth in Q3 2024, driven by resilient demand for manufactured goods despite recent volatility. While June’s contraction in exports (-5.47% YoY) and imports (-5.34% YoY) signals short-term headwinds, the deep supply chain integration in automotive (HS 87) and machinery (HS 84-85) sectors will likely stabilize trade flows. Expect moderate export recovery as U.S. consumer demand rebounds, but import growth may remain subdued due to Mexico’s industrial input dependency. Traders should prepare for potential currency fluctuations and supply chain bottlenecks, particularly in high-value categories like vehicles and electronics.
Strategic Moves
- Diversify Export Markets: Reduce reliance on U.S. automotive demand by targeting emerging markets for machinery (HS 84) and electrical equipment (HS 85), leveraging Mexico’s competitive manufacturing base.
- Lock in Energy Inputs: Secure long-term contracts for U.S. energy (HS 27) and plastics (HS 39) to mitigate price volatility and ensure stable production costs for export-oriented industries.
- Optimize Cross-Border Logistics: Invest in near-shoring logistics hubs to streamline JIT inventory management for automotive and electronics supply chains, cutting delays from June’s 15.12% MoM export drop.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Mexico - United States trade perform in 2024 Q2?
Mexico exported $126.76B to the U.S. (mixed YoY growth) and imported $65.32B (declining YoY by June).
What are the top exports from Mexico to United States?
Vehicles (HS 87) dominate, followed by electrical machinery (HS 85) and machinery (HS 84), accounting for 61.83% of total exports.
What does Mexico import from United States?
Top imports include machinery (HS 84), vehicles (HS 87), and electrical machinery (HS 85), reflecting technology and industrial input needs.
What is the trade balance between Mexico and United States?
Mexico recorded a $61.44B trade surplus in Q2 2024, with exports nearly double imports.
Mexico - United States Trade 2024 Q1: $55.51B Surplus
Mexico's trade surplus with the U.S. hit $55.51B in Q1 2024, driven by vehicles and machinery. Explore Mexico United States trade trends and top trading products on yTrade.
Mexico - United States Trade 2024 Q3: Record $65.5B Surplus
Mexico's trade surplus with the U.S. hit $65.5B in Q3 2024, driven by vehicle exports. Explore Mexico United States trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
