Mexico - United Kingdom Trade 2024 Q4: Surplus & Risks

Key Market Takeaways: Mexico - United Kingdom Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Mexico and United Kingdom shows growth with volatility in Q4 2024.

• Mexico holds a $224M trade surplus, exporting $863M to the UK while importing $638M, but import demand from the UK weakened sharply in November (-18% YoY).
• Mexico - United Kingdom trade statistics reveal heavy concentration: HS Code 99 dominates nearly 90% of Mexico’s exports, while UK shipments include machinery (HS 84, 85) and pharmaceuticals (HS 30), signaling intra-industry trade.
• Strategic interdependence is deepening, with supply chain integration in specialized goods, though Mexico’s export reliance on a single category poses risks.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Mexico-United Kingdom Trade Trend in Q4 2024

Mexico Export Performance: Shipments to United Kingdom

• Total Volume: $862.72M in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Mixed YoY performance: October saw a sharp decline (-19.82%), but November surged (+105.56%), offsetting the drop. December returned to modest growth (+4.33%).
  • No specific trade news to explain volatility.
• Key Volatility: November recorded a 40.04% MoM spike, while December saw a -30.35% contraction.

Mexico Import Performance: Sourcing from United Kingdom

• Total Volume: $638.38M in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Steep YoY declines in November (-8.92%) and December (-18.12%), despite October’s +10.63% growth.
• Key Volatility: November imports fell -17.81% MoM, the sharpest drop of the quarter.

Mexico - United Kingdom Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Mexico holds a $224.34M trade surplus with the UK ($862.72M exports vs. $638.38M imports).
• Relationship Status: Mexico is a net exporter, but import volatility suggests uneven demand for UK goods.

Mexico Import Trend from United Kingdom 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Mexico Export Trend to United Kingdom 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Mexico United Kingdom Trade Records

Mexico-United Kingdom Top Trading Products in Q4 2024

Mexico Export Profile: What Does Mexico Sell to United Kingdom

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 dominates exports, accounting for 759.70M (88.06%) of total exports to the UK.
• Demand Driver: The UK likely imports these goods for industrial processing or as intermediate inputs, given the high share of a single category.
• Concentration: Trade is heavily concentrated, with HS Code 99 making up nearly 90% of exports.

Mexico Import Profile: What Does Mexico Buy from United Kingdom

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 is also the top import, valued at 186.82M (29.26%) of total imports from the UK.
• Dependency Nature: The presence of machinery (HS 84, 85) and pharmaceuticals (HS 30) suggests a mix of technology and industrial inputs, indicating critical technology dependency.

Mexico - United Kingdom Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: The trade shows Intra-Industry Trade, with HS Code 99 appearing as both the top export and import. This suggests deep supply chain integration, possibly in specialized goods or services.
• Value Chain Position: The UK holds a higher value-add position, given the inclusion of machinery and pharmaceuticals in its exports, while Mexico’s exports are highly concentrated in a single category.

Import Analysis by Product: United Kingdom to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Mexico to United Kingdom (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Mexico-United Kingdom Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Mexico - United Kingdom trade forecast for early 2025 points to continued volatility, driven by uneven demand and supply chain adjustments. Mexico’s export surge in November suggests latent capacity, but the December contraction signals potential demand softening in the UK. With HS Code 99 dominating trade on both sides, supply chain disruptions or shifts in industrial demand could amplify fluctuations. Traders should prepare for a period of consolidation, with growth likely stabilizing mid-year if structural integration deepens.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Categories: Reduce reliance on HS Code 99 by identifying secondary commodities (e.g., machinery components or automotive parts) where Mexico holds competitive advantages.
• Secure Long-Term Contracts: Lock in stable pricing for critical UK imports like pharmaceuticals (HS 30) and machinery (HS 84, 85) to mitigate sudden cost spikes.
• Optimize Logistics for Intra-Industry Trade: Streamline cross-border supply chains for HS Code 99 goods, adopting Just-in-Time (JIT) inventory systems to align with the UK’s high-value-add production cycles.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Mexico - United Kingdom trade perform in 2024 Q4?

Mexico exported $862.72M to the UK, with mixed YoY growth (October -19.82%, November +105.56%, December +4.33%). Imports from the UK totaled $638.38M, showing steep YoY declines in November (-8.92%) and December (-18.12%).

What are the top exports from Mexico to United Kingdom?

HS Code 99 dominates Mexico’s exports to the UK, accounting for 88.06% ($759.70M) of total shipments, likely for industrial processing or intermediate inputs.

What does Mexico import from United Kingdom?

HS Code 99 is the top import (29.26%, $186.82M), alongside machinery (HS 84, 85) and pharmaceuticals (HS 30), reflecting technology and industrial dependency.

What is the trade balance between Mexico and United Kingdom?

Mexico holds a $224.34M trade surplus with the UK ($862.72M exports vs. $638.38M imports), though import volatility suggests uneven demand for UK goods.