Mexico - United Kingdom Trade 2023 Q1: Surplus Amid Volatility

Key Market Takeaways: Mexico - United Kingdom Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Mexico and United Kingdom shows growth with volatility in Q1 2023, with Mexico maintaining a net exporter position.

• Economic Pulse: Mexico holds a $144.72M trade surplus ($769.56M exports vs. $624.84M imports), though export growth was uneven—January surged 33.48% YoY, while February contracted 11.34%.
• Exchange Structure: Trade dynamics are obscured by HS Code 99 (unspecified goods), dominating 85.46% of Mexico’s exports and 33.20% of imports. Secondary categories (machinery, vehicles, tech) hint at potential supply chain links.
• Strategic Interdependence: The UK likely supplies higher-value industrial goods (HS 84, 85, 90), while Mexico’s export profile remains lopsided and opaque, masking true dependency.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Mexico-United Kingdom Trade Trend in Q1 2023

Mexico Export Performance: Shipments to United Kingdom

• Total Volume: $769.56M in Q1 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context: Mixed YoY performance—January surged 33.48%, but February contracted 11.34%. March rebounded with 5.55% growth. No news to contextualize shifts.
• Key Volatility: January saw a 49.73% MoM spike, while February dropped 27.4%.

Mexico Import Performance: Sourcing from United Kingdom

• Total Volume: $624.84M in Q1 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context: Steady YoY growth (13.15% in January, 20.75% in February, 19.77% in March). No news to explain trends.
• Key Volatility: February posted a 20.02% MoM jump after a 13.38% decline in January.

Mexico - United Kingdom Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Mexico holds a $144.72M trade surplus with the UK ($769.56M exports vs. $624.84M imports).
• Relationship Status: Mexico maintains a net exporter role, with exports consistently outpacing imports.

Mexico Import Trend from United Kingdom 2023 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Mexico Export Trend to United Kingdom 2023 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Mexico United Kingdom Trade Records

Mexico-United Kingdom Top Trading Products in Q1 2023

Mexico Export Profile: What Does Mexico Sell to United Kingdom

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (Unspecified goods) dominates with 85.46% share.
• Demand Driver: Likely serving the UK's consumer market or industrial processing needs, given the high share of unspecified goods.
• Concentration: Extreme concentration in HS Code 99 (>85%), indicating a lopsided export profile.

Mexico Import Profile: What Does Mexico Buy from United Kingdom

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (Unspecified goods) leads with 33.20% share.
• Dependency Nature: Unclear strategic value due to unspecified goods. Secondary imports (HS 84, 87, 22) suggest industrial machinery, vehicles, and beverages, pointing to potential technology or consumer goods dependency.

Mexico - United Kingdom Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Unclear due to HS Code 99 dominance. Secondary categories (HS 84, 85, 87) hint at potential supply chain integration in machinery and electronics.
• Value Chain Position: UK likely holds higher value-add, given Mexico's reliance on UK machinery (HS 84, 85) and tech (HS 90). Mexico's exports are overly concentrated in unspecified goods, masking true trade dynamics.

Import Analysis by Product: United Kingdom to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Mexico to United Kingdom (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Mexico-United Kingdom Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Mexico’s trade surplus with the UK is expected to hold in Q2 2023, but volatility in export growth—driven by erratic demand for unspecified goods (HS Code 99)—poses risks. The UK’s steady import growth suggests resilient demand for Mexican exports, but overreliance on a single commodity category leaves Mexico exposed to sudden market shifts. Without diversification, the current surplus could narrow if HS Code 99 demand falters. Traders should monitor UK consumer trends and industrial activity for early signals of a downturn.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Offerings: Mexican exporters must reduce dependence on HS Code 99 by identifying and promoting secondary goods (e.g., machinery, vehicles) where the UK shows consistent demand. Market research into UK industrial needs is critical.
• Lock in Long-Term Contracts: UK importers of Mexican goods should secure fixed-price agreements to hedge against potential volatility in unspecified commodities, which dominate trade flows.
• Optimize Supply Chains for High-Value Imports: Mexican manufacturers reliant on UK machinery (HS 84, 85) should streamline logistics to mitigate disruptions from Brexit-related customs delays. Just-in-time inventory systems may prove cost-effective.

Next Steps: Mexican trade authorities should urgently clarify HS Code 99 contents to unmask hidden risks and opportunities in this bilateral relationship.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Mexico - United Kingdom trade perform in 2023 Q1?

Mexico exported $769.56M and imported $624.84M, with mixed YoY export growth (January surge, February drop) and steady import growth (13-20% YoY).

What are the top exports from Mexico to United Kingdom?

HS Code 99 (Unspecified goods) dominates Mexico’s exports to the UK, accounting for 85.46% of total shipments.

What does Mexico import from United Kingdom?

HS Code 99 (Unspecified goods) leads imports (33.20%), followed by industrial machinery (HS 84), vehicles (HS 87), and beverages (HS 22).

What is the trade balance between Mexico and United Kingdom?

Mexico holds a $144.72M trade surplus with the UK in Q1 2023, maintaining its net exporter role.