Mexico - Mainland China Trade 2023 Whole Year: $114B Deficit Dominates

Key Market Takeaways: Mexico - Mainland China Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Mexico and Mainland China is defined by a lopsided deficit and volatile growth in 2023.

• $114B Deficit Dominates: Mexico ran a $105B trade gap with Mainland China (imports $114B vs. exports $9.15B), reflecting heavy reliance on Chinese goods despite flat annual import growth (+1.33% YoY in December).
• Resource-for-Tech Exchange: Mexico - Mainland China trade statistics show a clear split: 46.7% of Mexico’s exports are raw ores (HS 26) for Chinese industry, while 34.6% of imports are high-tech electronics (HS 85).
• Asymmetric Interdependence: Mainland China holds the upper hand in value chains, supplying critical tech components while Mexico remains a commodity supplier.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Mexico-Mainland China Trade Trend in Whole Year 2023

Mexico Export Performance: Shipments to Mainland China

• Total Volume: $9.15B in 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY declines dominated, with February (-39.07%) and September (-32.77%) as the steepest drops. June (+112.24%) was the sole outlier due to a 58.2% MoM surge.
• Key Volatility: June’s export spike ($1.03B) contrasted sharply with July’s -40.08% MoM plunge ($619.71M).

Mexico Import Performance: Sourcing from Mainland China

• Total Volume: $114.19B in 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY fluctuated between -15.35% (March) and +11.51% (November), ending the year with modest growth (+1.33% in December).
• Key Volatility: May (+11.57% MoM) and August (+10.32% MoM) saw the strongest rebounds, while July (-6.09%) and December (-7.55%) dipped.

Mexico - Mainland China Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $105.04B (Imports $114.19B > Exports $9.15B).
• Relationship Status: Mexico remains heavily import-dependent on Mainland China, with imports exceeding exports by 12.5x.

Mexico Import Trend from Mainland China 2023 Whole Year (Source: yTrade)**

Mexico Export Trend to Mainland China 2023 Whole Year (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Mexico Mainland China Trade Records

Mexico-Mainland China Top Trading Products in Whole Year 2023

Mexico Export Profile: What Does Mexico Sell to Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 26 (Ores, slag, and ash) at 46.65% of total exports to Mainland China.
• Demand Driver: Mainland China uses these raw materials for industrial processing, likely in steel production or other heavy industries.
• Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with HS 26 alone accounting for nearly half of exports.

Mexico Import Profile: What Does Mexico Buy from Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 85 (Electrical machinery and equipment) at 34.60% of total imports from Mainland China.
• Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, as these imports likely include semiconductors, consumer electronics, and industrial components.

Mexico - Mainland China Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Mexico supplies raw materials (ores) while Mainland China provides high-tech manufactured goods (electrical machinery).
• Value Chain Position: Mainland China holds the higher value-add position, exporting advanced electronics, while Mexico’s exports are primarily low-value raw materials.

Import Analysis by Product: Mainland China to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Mexico to Mainland China (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Mexico-Mainland China Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Mexico - Mainland China trade relationship in 2024 will likely remain volatile, with Mexico’s export performance hinging on raw material demand while import dependency on Chinese electronics persists. The steep YoY declines in key months (e.g., February and September 2023) signal vulnerability to global commodity price swings, but June’s outlier surge proves opportunistic demand exists. Mainland China’s industrial appetite for Mexican ores (HS 26) may stabilize exports, while Mexico’s tech import reliance (HS 85) will keep the trade deficit wide. Traders should brace for uneven growth, with potential rebounds tied to China’s manufacturing cycles.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Long-Term Ore Contracts: Mexican exporters must secure multi-year agreements with Chinese buyers to mitigate price volatility, leveraging HS 26’s dominance (46.65% of exports).
• Diversify Tech Sourcing: Mexican importers should reduce overreliance on Mainland China for HS 85 goods by exploring partnerships with Vietnam or India to curb supply chain risks.
• Push for Higher-Value Exports: Mexican policymakers and businesses must prioritize upgrading export composition beyond raw materials, targeting automotive or aerospace components to narrow the deficit.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Mexico - Mainland China trade perform in 2023 Whole Year?

Mexico exported $9.15B to Mainland China, with YoY declines dominating most months. Imports from Mainland China totaled $114.19B, ending the year with modest growth (+1.33% in December).

What are the top exports from Mexico to Mainland China?

HS 26 (Ores, slag, and ash) was the top export, accounting for 46.65% of total exports, driven by Mainland China’s demand for raw materials in industrial processing.

What does Mexico import from Mainland China?

HS 85 (Electrical machinery and equipment) was the top import, representing 34.60% of total imports, reflecting Mexico’s dependency on high-tech goods like semiconductors and consumer electronics.

What is the trade balance between Mexico and Mainland China?

Mexico recorded a trade deficit of $105.04B in 2023, with imports exceeding exports by 12.5x, highlighting its heavy reliance on Mainland China for manufactured goods.