Mexico - Japan Trade 2025 Q1: Widening Deficit

Key Market Takeaways: Mexico - Japan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Mexico and Japan remains heavily skewed toward imports, with Mexico’s trade deficit widening in Q1 2025.

• $4.66B imports vs. $898.82M exports – Mexico’s deficit with Japan hit $3.76B, driven by surging Japanese machinery shipments and stagnant Mexican exports.
• Resource-for-Tech exchange – Mexico’s top exports (43% unspecified goods) contrast with Japan’s dominance in high-value electrical machinery (26.67%) and vehicles (18.77%), per Mexico-Japan trade statistics.
• Asymmetric interdependence – Japan holds the value-chain high ground, supplying critical tech while Mexico’s exports lack diversification or recovery momentum.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Mexico-Japan Trade Trend in Q1 2025

Mexico Export Performance: Shipments to Japan

• Total Volume: $898.82M in Q1 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY decline persisted across all months, with the sharpest drop in January (-26.06%). No recovery to 2024 levels observed.
• Key Volatility: February saw a 23.49% MoM rebound, but momentum faded in March (+2.05% MoM).

Mexico Import Performance: Sourcing from Japan

• Total Volume: $4.66B in Q1 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth accelerated in March (+11.92%), offsetting a flat January (+0.05%). No news to contextualize the surge.
• Key Volatility: March imports spiked 9.63% MoM, marking the quarter’s peak.

Mexico - Japan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Mexico ran a $3.76B trade deficit with Japan (Imports $4.66B > Exports $898.82M).
• Relationship Status: Heavy reliance on Japanese imports, with exports failing to close the gap. The deficit widened YoY.

Mexico Import Trend from Japan 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Mexico Export Trend to Japan 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Mexico Japan Trade Records

Mexico-Japan Top Trading Products in Q1 2025

Mexico Export Profile: What Does Mexico Sell to Japan

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (Unspecified goods) dominates with 43.27% share.
• Demand Driver: Japan likely uses these for industrial processing or re-export, given the high share of unspecified goods.
• Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with the top commodity accounting for over 40% of exports.

Mexico Import Profile: What Does Mexico Buy from Japan

• Top Commodity: HS Code 85 (Electrical machinery) leads with 26.67% share.
• Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, as imports are dominated by high-tech machinery and vehicles (HS 87 at 18.77%).

Mexico - Japan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Mexico exports unspecified goods and agricultural products (HS 02, 08) while importing high-value machinery and electronics from Japan.
• Value Chain Position: Japan holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced machinery (HS 84, 85, 87) versus Mexico’s raw or semi-processed exports.

Import Analysis by Product: Japan to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Mexico to Japan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Mexico-Japan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast for Mexico-Japan Trade

Mexico’s trade deficit with Japan is expected to widen further in Q2 2025, driven by sustained demand for Japanese high-tech imports and sluggish export recovery. The structural imbalance—Mexico’s reliance on unspecified goods (HS 99) versus Japan’s dominance in advanced machinery (HS 85, 87)—will persist unless export diversification accelerates. While Japan’s import surge may stabilize, Mexico’s export sector shows no near-term catalysts for growth. Traders should prepare for continued volatility, particularly in electrical machinery (HS 85) and vehicle parts (HS 87), where Japanese supply chain advantages remain unshaken.

Strategic Moves for Mexican Stakeholders

• Diversify Export Baskets: Mexican exporters must reduce dependence on HS 99 by targeting Japan’s agro-industrial demand (e.g., HS 02 meats, HS 08 fruits) with certified quality upgrades.
• Lock In Tech Import Contracts: Importers should negotiate long-term agreements for critical machinery (HS 84, 85) to hedge against price spikes and supply chain disruptions.
• Leverage Nearshoring Synergies: Manufacturers in Mexico must position themselves as intermediaries for Japanese firms relocating production to North America, offering tariff advantages under USMCA and CPTPP.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Mexico - Japan trade perform in 2025 Q1?

Mexico's exports to Japan declined YoY to $898.82M, while imports from Japan rose to $4.66B, widening the trade deficit.

What are the top exports from Mexico to Japan?

Unspecified goods (HS Code 99) dominate, accounting for 43.27% of Mexico's exports to Japan.

What does Mexico import from Japan?

Electrical machinery (HS Code 85) leads with 26.67% share, followed by vehicles and high-tech machinery.

What is the trade balance between Mexico and Japan?

Mexico ran a $3.76B trade deficit with Japan in Q1 2025, with the gap widening YoY.