Mexico - Japan Trade 2024 Q1: Deficit & Tech Exchange

Key Market Takeaways: Mexico - Japan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Mexico and Japan reflects a deepening resource-for-tech dependency in Q1 2024.

• Deficit-Driven Trade: Mexico posted a -$3.38B trade deficit (exports: $1.07B, imports: $4.45B), with imports from Japan declining sharply (-26.28% YoY in March) while exports showed volatile growth.
• Resource-for-Tech Exchange: Mexico - Japan trade statistics reveal a lopsided structure: 45% of Mexico’s exports are unclassified industrial goods (HS 99), while 26% of imports are high-tech machinery (HS 85).
• Asymmetrical Interdependence: Japan holds the value-add advantage, supplying critical tech inputs, while Mexico’s exports remain concentrated in low-processed commodities.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Mexico-Japan Trade Trend in Q1 2024

Mexico Export Performance: Shipments to Japan

• Total Volume: $1.07B in Q1 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was strong in January (+28.12%) and February (+34.2%), but turned negative in March (-1.03%).
  • No specific trade news to explain the volatility.
• Key Volatility: February saw the highest MoM growth (+6.46%), while March recorded a decline (-3.92%).

Mexico Import Performance: Sourcing from Japan

• Total Volume: $4.45B in Q1 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY declines persisted across all months, with March showing the sharpest drop (-26.28%).
  • No relevant news to contextualize the contraction.
• Key Volatility: January had the highest MoM increase (+9.76%), while February saw a -5.02% dip.

Mexico - Japan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Mexico ran a trade deficit of -$3.38B (Exports $1.07B vs. Imports $4.45B).
• Relationship Status: Heavy reliance on Japanese imports, with exports failing to offset the imbalance.

Mexico Import Trend from Japan 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Mexico Export Trend to Japan 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Mexico Japan Trade Records

Mexico-Japan Top Trading Products in Q1 2024

Mexico Export Profile: What Does Mexico Sell to Japan

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS Code 99 (44.68% share). This likely represents unclassified or special category goods, often used in industrial processing.
• Demand Driver: Japan imports these for industrial or manufacturing needs, suggesting Mexico supplies intermediate or raw materials.
• Concentration: The trade is highly concentrated, with HS Code 99 alone accounting for nearly 45% of exports.

Mexico Import Profile: What Does Mexico Buy from Japan

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS Code 85 (26.38% share), covering electrical machinery and equipment.
• Dependency Nature: Mexico relies on Japan for high-tech machinery, indicating a critical technology dependency for industrial or consumer electronics.

Mexico - Japan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Mexico exports raw or intermediate goods (HS 99) while importing high-tech machinery (HS 85) from Japan.
• Value Chain Position: Japan holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced machinery (HS 84, 85) compared to Mexico’s less processed exports (HS 99, 02).

Import Analysis by Product: Japan to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Mexico to Japan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Mexico-Japan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast for Mexico-Japan Trade

The Mexico-Japan trade relationship is likely to face continued volatility in Q2 2024, with Mexico’s exports struggling to offset its heavy reliance on Japanese high-tech imports. The sharp decline in Japanese imports (-26.28% YoY in March) suggests weakening demand, while Mexico’s export growth remains inconsistent. However, the strong industrial complementarity—Mexico supplying raw/intermediate goods (HS 99) and Japan exporting advanced machinery (HS 85)—provides a foundation for recovery if global manufacturing demand stabilizes. Traders should prepare for a period of consolidation, with potential upside if Mexico diversifies its export basket beyond HS 99.

Strategic Moves for Traders & Policymakers

• Lock in Long-Term Supply Contracts: Given Japan’s dominance in critical machinery (HS 85), Mexican importers should secure fixed-price agreements to hedge against future price volatility and supply chain disruptions.
• Diversify Export Markets for HS 99 Goods: Mexico’s overreliance on Japan for nearly 45% of its exports (HS 99) is risky. Exporters must aggressively target other Asian industrial hubs (e.g., South Korea, Taiwan) to reduce dependency.
• Boost Value-Added Exports to Japan: Mexico should incentivize higher-value manufacturing (e.g., automotive components, aerospace) to shift from raw material exports and narrow the trade deficit. Government-backed trade missions to Japan could facilitate this transition.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Mexico - Japan trade perform in 2024 Q1?

Mexico's exports to Japan grew YoY in January (+28.12%) and February (+34.2%) but declined in March (-1.03%), totaling $1.07B. Imports from Japan fell YoY across all months, reaching $4.45B.

What are the top exports from Mexico to Japan?

HS Code 99 (unclassified/special category goods) dominated Mexico's exports to Japan, accounting for 44.68% of total shipments, likely supplying industrial or raw materials.

What does Mexico import from Japan?

Mexico's top import from Japan was HS Code 85 (electrical machinery and equipment), representing 26.38% of imports, highlighting a reliance on high-tech machinery.

What is the trade balance between Mexico and Japan?

Mexico recorded a trade deficit of -$3.38B with Japan in Q1 2024, driven by heavy reliance on Japanese imports ($4.45B) outweighing exports ($1.07B).