Mexico - Germany Trade 2023 Q3: Deficit & Industrial Ties

Key Market Takeaways: Mexico - Germany Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Mexico and Germany shows growth with volatile swings and a heavy import reliance in Q3 2023.

Deficit-Driven Trade: Mexico’s imports from Germany ($5.51B) dwarf exports ($2.48B), creating a $3.03B deficit. While exports grew YoY (peaking at +16.99% in September), imports surged earlier (+23.4% in August) before slowing sharply.
Industrial Supply Chain Integration: Mexico - Germany trade statistics reveal intra-industry exchange, especially in vehicles (HS 87) and machinery (HS 84). Mexico’s exports are hyper-concentrated in unclassified goods (HS 99, 52.64%), while Germany supplies high-tech industrial inputs (HS 84, 20.87%).
Asymmetrical Value Chains: Germany holds the high-value position (machinery, precision instruments), while Mexico’s exports suggest niche components or re-exports, highlighting dependency on German manufacturing tech.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Mexico-Germany Trade Trend in Q3 2023

Mexico Export Performance: Shipments to Germany

Total Volume: $2.48B in Q3 2023.
Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY growth was mixed: +2.17% in July, +13.31% in August, and +16.99% in September.
- No specific trade news to explain the trends.
Key Volatility: August saw the highest export value ($840.15M), while July had the sharpest MoM drop (-11.9%).

Mexico Import Performance: Sourcing from Germany

Total Volume: $5.51B in Q3 2023.
Growth Trend & Context:
- Strong YoY growth in July (+17.12%) and August (+23.4%), but a sharp slowdown to +1.26% in September.
Key Volatility: August peaked at $2.01B (11.58% MoM growth), while September saw a significant MoM contraction (-14.96%).

Mexico - Germany Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

Net Position: Mexico ran a trade deficit of $3.03B (Imports $5.51B > Exports $2.48B).
Relationship Status: Heavy reliance on German imports, with exports failing to offset the imbalance.

Mexico Import Trend from Germany 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Month	Value	MoM	YoY
Jul	1.80B	-1.91%	17.12%
Aug	2.01B	11.58%	23.4%
Sep	1.71B	-14.96%	1.26%
Total	5.51B	-	-

Mexico Export Trend to Germany 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Month	Value	MoM	YoY
Jul	823.88M	-11.9%	2.17%
Aug	840.15M	1.98%	13.31%
Sep	817.47M	-2.7%	16.99%
Total	2.48B	-	-

Get Historical Mexico Germany Trade Records

Mexico-Germany Top Trading Products in Q3 2023

Mexico Export Profile: What Does Mexico Sell to Germany

Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS Code 99 (52.64% share). This likely represents unclassified or special category goods, often used in bilateral trade for specific agreements or re-exports.
Demand Driver: Germany's imports are dominated by HS Code 99 and 87 (vehicles, 38.43%), suggesting Mexico supplies either niche industrial components or re-exported goods. The high share of vehicles (HS 87) points to deep auto industry ties.
Concentration: Extreme—HS Code 99 alone accounts for over half of exports, indicating a lopsided trade structure.

Mexico Import Profile: What Does Mexico Buy from Germany

Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS Code 84 (machinery, 20.87% share), followed closely by vehicles (HS 87, 16.90%).
Dependency Nature: Machinery (HS 84) and electrical equipment (HS 85) dominate, reflecting Mexico's reliance on German high-tech industrial inputs. This is a classic case of technology dependency for manufacturing.

Mexico - Germany Trade Relationship Dynamics

The Exchange Model: Intra-Industry Trade, particularly in vehicles (HS 87) and machinery (HS 84). Both countries exchange similar categories, suggesting supply chain integration—likely in automotive and industrial sectors.
Value Chain Position: Germany holds the higher value-add position, exporting machinery (HS 84) and precision instruments (HS 90), while Mexico's exports are more concentrated in less differentiated goods (HS 99). The bilateral flow of vehicles (HS 87) hints at back-and-forth production sharing.

Import Analysis by Product: Germany to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

HS Code	Value	Percent
84	1.15B	20.87%
87	931.06M	16.90%
99	866.62M	15.73%
85	796.98M	14.47%
39	293.74M	5.33%
30	256.98M	4.67%
90	252.34M	4.58%
73	169.65M	3.08%
38	94.27M	1.71%
72	89.51M	1.62%

Export Analysis by Product: Mexico to Germany (Source: yTrade)

HS Code	Value	Percent
99	1.31B	52.64%
87	953.53M	38.43%
85	83.09M	3.35%
84	60.00M	2.42%
90	39.62M	1.60%
74	8.10M	0.33%
69	6.55M	0.26%
04	6.24M	0.25%
39	4.11M	0.17%
22	2.27M	0.09%

Check Detailed Mexico-Germany Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Mexico’s trade with Germany is expected to remain volatile in Q4 2023, with exports likely to sustain moderate growth (5-10% YoY) due to steady demand for vehicles (HS 87) and niche industrial components (HS 99). However, the widening trade deficit ($3.03B in Q3) signals persistent structural imbalances—Mexico’s reliance on German machinery (HS 84) and tech imports will keep pressure on the deficit unless export diversification accelerates. The auto sector’s supply chain integration may cushion downturns, but traders should brace for uneven monthly performance, especially if German industrial demand softens.

Strategic Moves

Diversify Export Mix: Mexican exporters must reduce dependence on HS 99 (52.64% share) by targeting secondary German demand clusters like aerospace (HS 88) or agro-industrial goods (HS 12-24). Government-backed trade missions could identify new niches.
Lock In Tech Imports Strategically: Manufacturers relying on German machinery (HS 84) should negotiate long-term supply contracts to hedge against price volatility, especially with the euro’s fluctuating strength.
Optimize Auto Sector Logistics: Firms in vehicle trade (HS 87) must adopt Just-in-Time inventory systems to mitigate August-like MoM swings (-11.9% drop in July, +16.99% spike in September). Leaner supply chains will cut costs for bilateral production sharing.