Mexico - Brazil Trade 2024 Whole Year: Volatile Deficit

Key Market Takeaways: Mexico - Brazil Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Mexico and Brazil is marked by a significant trade deficit and volatile growth in 2024.

• Economic Pulse: Mexico posted a $6.95B trade deficit with Brazil ($11.69B imports vs. $4.74B exports), despite late-year export rebounds. Volatility dominated, with sharp MoM swings (e.g., +23.72% in October, -27.43% in November).
• Exchange Structure: Mexico - Brazil trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech complementarity—Mexico supplies vehicles (HS 87) and electronics (HS 85) while importing agricultural goods (HS 02) and unclassified commodities (HS 99).
• Strategic Interdependence: Asymmetric but complementary: Mexico holds the higher value-add position in industrial exports, while Brazil leans on raw materials.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Mexico-Brazil Trade Trend in Whole Year 2024

Mexico Export Performance: Shipments to Brazil

• Total Volume: $4.74B in 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Mixed YoY performance: Strong recovery in H2 (e.g., Dec +50.07% YoY) offset early-year declines (Mar -2.74% YoY).
  • No news-driven disruptions; volatility likely reflects commodity demand shifts.
• Key Volatility: October saw the highest MoM surge (+23.72%), while November dropped sharply (-27.43% MoM).

Mexico Import Performance: Sourcing from Brazil

• Total Volume: $11.69B in 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Predominantly negative YoY trends (9/12 months down, e.g., Jun -30.5% YoY), suggesting reduced demand or inventory adjustments.
• Key Volatility: April recorded the highest monthly value ($1.25B, +43.68% MoM), while June hit the lowest ($846.62M, -24.67% MoM).

Mexico - Brazil Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Mexico ran a trade deficit of $6.95B (Imports $11.69B > Exports $4.74B).
• Relationship Status: Heavy reliance on Brazilian imports, with exports failing to offset the gap despite late-year export rebounds.

Mexico Import Trend from Brazil 2024 Whole Year (Source: yTrade)**

Mexico Export Trend to Brazil 2024 Whole Year (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Mexico Brazil Trade Records

Mexico-Brazil Top Trading Products in Whole Year 2024

Mexico Export Profile: What Does Mexico Sell to Brazil

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (35.29% share), likely representing unclassified or special transactions. HS Code 87 (32.93%) follows closely, indicating vehicles or auto parts.
• Demand Driver: Brazil imports vehicles (HS 87) and machinery (HS 85, 84) from Mexico, suggesting industrial and consumer market demand. Electronics (HS 85) point to tech supply chain integration.
• Concentration: The top 2 categories (HS 99 and 87) dominate with 68.22% combined share, indicating high trade concentration.

Mexico Import Profile: What Does Mexico Buy from Brazil

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (48.06% share), likely unclassified goods, followed by machinery (HS 84, 9.38%) and meat (HS 02, 7.45%).
• Dependency Nature: Meat (HS 02) and wood products (HS 44) suggest agricultural and raw material reliance. Machinery (HS 84) hints at limited industrial dependency.

Mexico - Brazil Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Mexico exports vehicles and electronics (higher value-add) to Brazil while importing agricultural goods and raw materials.
• Value Chain Position: Mexico holds the higher value-add position, supplying manufactured goods (HS 87, 85) versus Brazil’s agricultural and unclassified exports (HS 99, 02). Trade is asymmetric, favoring Mexican industrial output.

Import Analysis by Product: Brazil to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Mexico to Brazil (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Mexico-Brazil Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast for Mexico - Brazil Trade

The Mexico - Brazil trade relationship is expected to stabilize in 2025, with moderate growth in Mexican exports driven by sustained demand for vehicles (HS 87) and electronics (HS 85). However, the persistent trade deficit ($6.95B in 2024) will likely remain unless Mexico diversifies its export basket or reduces reliance on Brazilian agricultural imports (HS 02, 44). Volatility in commodity-driven shipments (e.g., meat, wood) may continue, requiring traders to monitor Brazil’s domestic demand cycles closely. The late-year export rebound suggests potential for further recovery, but structural imbalances demand strategic adjustments.

Strategic Moves for Traders & Policymakers

• Expand Export Diversification: Mexican exporters must reduce dependence on HS 99 (unclassified goods) and HS 87 by targeting Brazil’s growing tech and industrial sectors with higher-value machinery (HS 84, 85).
• Lock in Agricultural Supply Contracts: Given Brazil’s dominance in meat (HS 02) and wood (HS 44), Mexican importers should secure long-term agreements to mitigate price volatility and ensure stable raw material flows.
• Optimize Logistics for Auto Parts Trade: With vehicles (HS 87) being Mexico’s second-largest export to Brazil, firms should streamline cross-border supply chains to capitalize on Brazil’s recovering automotive demand.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Mexico - Brazil trade perform in 2024 Whole Year?

Mexico exported $4.74B to Brazil, with mixed YoY growth, while imports from Brazil totaled $11.69B, showing predominantly negative YoY trends.

What are the top exports from Mexico to Brazil?

The top exports are unclassified goods (HS 99) and vehicles or auto parts (HS 87), accounting for 68.22% of total exports.

What does Mexico import from Brazil?

Mexico primarily imports unclassified goods (HS 99), machinery (HS 84), and meat (HS 02), with agricultural and raw materials being key dependencies.

What is the trade balance between Mexico and Brazil?

Mexico recorded a trade deficit of $6.95B with Brazil, driven by higher imports ($11.69B) compared to exports ($4.74B).