2024 Q3 Mexico Trade Data Summary: Cooling Demand

Mexico 2024 Q3 Trade Data Key Takeaways

• Market Trend: Mexico trade data shows exports down 4.5% MoM in September, imports plunging 11.6%, signaling cooling demand.
• Key Driver: Mexico import export data reveals U.S. absorbs 82% of exports, while imports rely on U.S. (39%) and China (21%).
• Strategic Risk: Hyper-concentration in U.S. exports exposes Mexico to downstream demand shocks, despite moderate upstream diversification.

Analysis covers 2024 Q3 based on sanitized customs records from the yTrade database.

Mexico 2024 Q3 Trade Data Trend Overview

• Mexico's export-driven manufacturing economy faced headwinds in Q3 2024, with its Mexico global trade data revealing a sequential slowdown after a strong first half of the year.
• The Mexico import export data showed exports contracting for two consecutive months, falling 4.9% MoM in August and another 4.5% in September to $49.8B, while imports saw a sharp 11.6% MoM drop in September to $50.2B, though both flows remained in positive annual growth territory.
• This resulted in a marginal trade deficit of approximately -$440 million for September, a significant improvement from previous months as import compression outpaced the export decline.
• The quarterly softening aligns with broader economic cooling and manufacturing sector weakness, likely driven by moderating U.S. demand and elevated trade policy uncertainty impacting investment and export momentum [Dallas Fed].

Table: Import Key Metrics (Source: yTrade)

Table: Export Key Metrics (Source: yTrade)

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Mexico 2024 Q3 Top Trading Products

Mexico Global Trade Core Summary

Mexico's trade is heavily driven by manufacturing, with vehicles (HS 87) making up 23% of exports, followed by electrical machinery (HS 85) and industrial machinery (HS 84). These three categories alone account for nearly 60% of total exports, showing a strong focus on finished goods. Imports are similarly concentrated in machinery and electrical equipment (HS 84, 85), suggesting a reliance on industrial inputs. A notable share of trade is uncategorized (HS 99), indicating potential data gaps or complex supply chains. Key takeaways:

• Exports are dominated by high-value manufacturing, especially autos and electronics.
• Imports lean heavily toward machinery and components, likely for assembly or production.
• Minimal resource exports (only 4% fuels) point to a manufacturing-led economy.

Mexico Export-Import Structural Gap

Mexico’s trade shows a clear industrial focus, with exports centered on finished vehicles and machinery while imports supply the parts and equipment needed to produce them. The overlap in HS 84 and 85 for both exports and imports suggests active processing trade—importing components to assemble and re-export. However, Mexico imports more electrical machinery (21% vs. 17% exported) and less vehicles (9% vs. 23% exported), highlighting its role as a net exporter of autos. The near-balance in machinery trade hints at integration with global supply chains, particularly in manufacturing. Limited raw material imports (like fuels) further emphasize Mexico’s position as an industrial hub.

Table: Mexico Top Import & Export Product Categories (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Mexico Trade HS Code Breakdown

Mexico 2024 Q3 Top Trading Countries

Mexico Global Trade Key Patterns

Mexico's exports are heavily concentrated, with the U.S. accounting for 82.13% ($128.67B) of total shipments. The next-largest destinations—Canada (2.98%), Mainland China (1.4%), and Germany (1.27%)—are far behind, showing minimal diversification. Imports are more balanced but still rely on the U.S. (39.01%, $63.17B) and Mainland China (21.37%, $34.61B), with smaller contributions from South Korea (4.03%) and Germany (3.32%). Key asymmetries include:

• Extreme export dependence on the U.S., with no other market exceeding 3%.
• Imports are less concentrated but still dominated by two suppliers (U.S. and China).
• Overlap in trade partners (U.S., China, Germany, Canada) suggests some processing trade.

Mexico Export–Import Geographic Gap

Exports are hyper-focused on the U.S., while imports show broader sourcing across North America, Asia, and Europe. The U.S. is both the top export destination and import source, indicating deep integration. However, Mexico’s import base is more regional (Asia-Pacific suppliers like China, South Korea, Vietnam) compared to its exports, which are nearly singularly U.S.-driven. This structure implies downstream dependence on U.S. demand but moderate upstream diversification for inputs.

Table: Mexico Top Destiantion & Origin Countries (Source: yTrade)

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the major products exported by Mexico in 2024 Q3?

Mexico's top exports in Q3 2024 were vehicles (HS Code 87, $36.28B, 23.16%), electrical machinery (HS Code 85, $27.16B, 17.33%), and machinery/boilers (HS Code 84, $26.82B, 17.12%), based on the trade data.

What are the main products Mexico imports in 2024 Q3?

Mexico primarily imported electrical machinery (HS Code 85, $34.23B, 21.14%), machinery/boilers (HS Code 84, $26.05B, 16.09%), and vehicles (HS Code 87, $14.71B, 9.08%) in Q3 2024.

Which countries are the top destinations for Mexico's exports in 2024 Q3?

The U.S. was Mexico's largest export market ($63.17B, 39.01%), followed by Mainland China ($34.61B, 21.37%) and South Korea ($6.53B, 4.03%) in Q3 2024.

Which countries supply most of Mexico's imports in 2024 Q3?

The U.S. dominated Mexico's imports ($128.67B, 82.13%), with Canada ($4.67B, 2.98%) and Mainland China ($2.20B, 1.40%) as secondary suppliers in Q3 2024.

How balanced are Mexico's export and import markets in 2024 Q3?

Mexico recorded a marginal trade deficit of -$440 million in September 2024, as imports fell 11.6% MoM (to $50.2B) while exports declined 4.5% MoM (to $49.8B), reflecting cooling demand and trade policy uncertainty.

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