Indonesia - Thailand Trade 2023 Q1: Deficit & Resource Exchange

Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Thailand Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Thailand reflects a net import dependency for Indonesia amid mixed growth signals in Q1 2023.

• Deficit-Driven Trade: Indonesia ran a $970M trade deficit with Thailand ($2.93B imports vs. $1.96B exports), despite softening YoY import demand (-4.26% to -13.08%).
• Resource-for-Tech Exchange: Indonesia - Thailand trade statistics show asymmetry: Mineral Fuels (39.48% of exports) flow to Thailand, while Sugar (22.24% of imports) and machinery dominate inbound shipments.
• Complementary but Imbalanced: Thailand’s higher value-add position in processed goods contrasts Indonesia’s raw material exports, signaling untapped upstream potential for Indonesia.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia-Thailand Trade Trend in Q1 2023

Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Thailand

• Total Volume: $1.96B in Q1 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Mixed YoY performance: +5.95% in January, +10.49% in February, but -7.57% in March.
  • February saw the strongest MoM surge (+13.74%), while March’s YoY decline suggests softening demand or base effects.
• Key Volatility: Sequential growth peaked in February (+13.74% MoM).

Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Thailand

• Total Volume: $2.93B in Q1 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Consistently negative YoY trends: -4.26% (Jan), -13.08% (Feb), -6.46% (Mar).
  • March imports rebounded sharply (+25.1% MoM) after flat January growth.
• Key Volatility: March dominated with both the highest absolute value ($1.13B) and largest MoM jump.

Indonesia - Thailand Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $970M (Imports $2.93B > Exports $1.96B).
• Relationship Status: Indonesia remains a net importer from Thailand, with Q1 demand skewed toward Thai goods despite weaker YoY import growth.

Indonesia Import Trend from Thailand 2023 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Indonesia Export Trend to Thailand 2023 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Indonesia Thailand Trade Records

Indonesia-Thailand Top Trading Products in Q1 2023

Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Thailand

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is Mineral Fuels (HS 27) at 39.48% of total exports to Thailand.
• Demand Driver: Thailand uses these for industrial processing, likely as feedstock or energy inputs.
• Concentration: The trade is highly concentrated, with Mineral Fuels alone accounting for nearly 40% of exports.

Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Thailand

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is Sugar & Confectionery (HS 17) at 22.24% of total imports from Thailand.
• Dependency Nature: Reflects food security dependency, as Thailand is a major sugar producer.

Indonesia - Thailand Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Indonesia exports raw materials (Mineral Fuels) and imports processed goods (Sugar, Machinery).
• Value Chain Position: Thailand holds a higher value-add position, supplying machinery (HS 84, 85) and consumer goods, while Indonesia primarily provides raw materials.

Import Analysis by Product: Thailand to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Thailand (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Indonesia-Thailand Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Indonesia’s trade with Thailand in Q1 2023 reveals a mixed but volatile trajectory, with exports showing resilience in February but declining in March, while imports from Thailand remain subdued yet rebounded sharply in March. Given Thailand’s structural role as a supplier of high-value processed goods (sugar, machinery) and Indonesia’s reliance on raw material exports (mineral fuels), trade volumes are likely to stabilize but remain uneven in Q2. The persistent trade deficit signals Indonesia’s need to diversify exports beyond commodities, while Thailand’s industrial demand for Indonesian fuels may sustain resource flows. However, softening YoY import growth suggests near-term headwinds for bilateral trade expansion.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Composition: Indonesian exporters must reduce reliance on mineral fuels by promoting secondary sectors like processed foods or textiles to capture higher margins in Thai markets.
• Lock in Long-Term Supply Contracts: Thai buyers of Indonesian mineral fuels should secure fixed-price agreements to mitigate volatility, while Indonesian importers of Thai sugar should explore alternative suppliers to weaken dependency.
• Optimize Logistics for March Surges: Traders on both sides must prepare for March’s import rebound by streamlining customs clearance and warehousing to handle peak demand cycles efficiently.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Indonesia - Thailand trade perform in 2023 Q1?

Indonesia's exports to Thailand totaled $1.96B with mixed YoY growth, while imports from Thailand reached $2.93B, showing consistent YoY declines.

What are the top exports from Indonesia to Thailand?

Mineral Fuels (HS 27) dominated Indonesia's exports to Thailand, accounting for 39.48% of total shipments.

What does Indonesia import from Thailand?

Sugar & Confectionery (HS 17) was the top import, making up 22.24% of Indonesia's purchases from Thailand.

What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Thailand?

Indonesia had a trade deficit of $970M with Thailand in Q1 2023, driven by higher imports than exports.