Indonesia - Philippines Trade 2024 Q1: Surge & Strategy
Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Philippines Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Philippines rebounded in Q1 2024 after early-year declines, with Indonesia maintaining a dominant export position.
- Economic Pulse: Indonesia posted a $2.13B trade surplus, exporting $2.46B (7.5x imports) despite volatile growth. March exports surged 38.7% MoM, offsetting earlier drops.
- Exchange Structure: Indonesia - Philippines trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech complementarity: vehicles (25.2%) and mineral fuels (23.5%) flow to Philippines, while electrical machinery (40.2%) dominates imports.
- Strategic Interdependence: The partnership hinges on Indonesia’s raw materials and intermediate goods meeting Philippines’ demand for high-value tech inputs.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Indonesia-Philippines Trade Trend in Q1 2024
Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Philippines
- Total Volume: $2.46B in Q1 2024.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY growth turned positive in March (+4.78%), reversing declines in January (-30.43%) and February (-23.18%).
- No specific trade news to explain the rebound.
- Key Volatility: March saw a sharp MoM surge (+38.72%), offsetting earlier weakness.
Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Philippines
- Total Volume: $325.26M in Q1 2024.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- Consistent YoY declines (Jan: -26.31%, Feb: -22.51%, Mar: -16.64%) suggest reduced demand or supply constraints.
- Key Volatility: March imports spiked 31.33% MoM but remained below prior-year levels.
Indonesia - Philippines Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: $2.13B surplus for Indonesia (Exports: $2.46B > Imports: $325.26M).
- Relationship Status: Indonesia dominates as a net exporter, with exports 7.5x higher than imports.
Indonesia Import Trend from Philippines 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 92.73M | -31.15% | -26.31% |
| Feb | 100.52M | 8.4% | -22.51% |
| Mar | 132.01M | 31.33% | -16.64% |
| Total | 325.26M | - | - |
Indonesia Export Trend to Philippines 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 720.31M | -13.16% | -30.43% |
| Feb | 728.78M | 1.18% | -23.18% |
| Mar | 1.01B | 38.72% | 4.78% |
| Total | 2.46B | - | - |
Get Historical Indonesia Philippines Trade Records
Indonesia-Philippines Top Trading Products in Q1 2024
Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Philippines
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 87 (Vehicles, parts) at 25.24% of total exports.
- Demand Driver: Philippines imports these for consumer market needs and potential assembly or maintenance industries.
- Concentration: No single category dominates (>50%), but vehicles and mineral fuels (HS 27) combined account for 48.7% of exports.
Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Philippines
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 85 (Electrical machinery, equipment) at 40.17% of total imports.
- Dependency Nature: Reflects critical technology dependency, likely for electronics manufacturing or infrastructure.
Indonesia - Philippines Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Indonesia exports vehicles and mineral fuels (HS 87, 27) while importing high-tech machinery (HS 85).
- Value Chain Position: Philippines holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced electrical machinery, while Indonesia provides raw materials (mineral fuels) and intermediate goods (vehicles).
Import Analysis by Product: Philippines to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 85 | 130.65M | 40.17% |
| 74 | 27.31M | 8.40% |
| 15 | 21.47M | 6.60% |
| 39 | 21.44M | 6.59% |
| 24 | 20.58M | 6.33% |
| 84 | 19.53M | 6.01% |
| 29 | 13.56M | 4.17% |
| 87 | 11.77M | 3.62% |
| 90 | 8.95M | 2.75% |
| 26 | 8.28M | 2.55% |
Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Philippines (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 87 | 620.91M | 25.24% |
| 27 | 577.25M | 23.46% |
| 24 | 178.42M | 7.25% |
| 21 | 121.96M | 4.96% |
| 15 | 111.63M | 4.54% |
| 84 | 95.90M | 3.90% |
| 72 | 87.55M | 3.56% |
| 48 | 64.15M | 2.61% |
| 26 | 62.97M | 2.56% |
| 71 | 60.80M | 2.47% |
Check Detailed Indonesia-Philippines Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast
Indonesia’s trade surplus with the Philippines is expected to widen in Q2 2024, driven by sustained demand for vehicles (HS 87) and mineral fuels (HS 27). The rebound in March exports suggests resilience in Philippine consumer markets, while persistent import declines indicate Indonesia’s reduced reliance on Philippine electrical machinery (HS 85). However, volatility in monthly trade flows calls for caution—traders should monitor Philippine industrial activity and potential supply chain disruptions. The resource-for-tech exchange model will likely hold, but Indonesia must push for higher-value exports to rebalance the relationship.
Strategic Moves
- Lock in Vehicle Export Contracts: With HS 87 commanding 25% of exports, Indonesian automakers should secure long-term agreements with Philippine distributors to stabilize revenue amid fluctuating demand.
- Diversify Tech Imports: Reduce dependency on Philippine electrical machinery (HS 85) by exploring alternative suppliers in Vietnam or Thailand to mitigate supply risks and price volatility.
- Accelerate Mineral Fuel Marketing: Capitalize on rising energy demand in the Philippines by pre-negotiating quarterly fuel shipments, leveraging Indonesia’s competitive pricing in HS 27 exports.
Execution focus: Traders must act now to secure Q2 positions before regional competitors exploit the rebound.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Indonesia - Philippines trade perform in 2024 Q1?
Indonesia's exports to the Philippines totaled $2.46B in Q1 2024, with a 4.78% YoY growth rebound in March, while imports from the Philippines fell 16.64% YoY to $325.26M.
What are the top exports from Indonesia to Philippines?
Vehicles and parts (HS 87) and mineral fuels (HS 27) dominate Indonesia's exports to the Philippines, together accounting for 48.7% of total shipments.
What does Indonesia import from Philippines?
Electrical machinery and equipment (HS 85) is Indonesia's top import from the Philippines, making up 40.17% of total imports.
What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Philippines?
Indonesia holds a $2.13B trade surplus with the Philippines, as exports are 7.5x higher than imports. The gap remains wide due to declining imports.
Indonesia - Philippines Trade 2024 Whole Year: $3.57B Surplus
Indonesia's trade surplus with the Philippines hits $3.57B in 2024, fueled by mineral fuels and vehicles. Explore Indonesia Philippines trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
Indonesia - Philippines Trade 2024 Q2: Resource-for-Tech Exchange
Indonesia's $1.43B trade surplus with the Philippines highlights a resource-for-tech exchange, with energy and vehicles flowing for electronics. Explore Indonesia Philippines trade trends and top trading products via yTrade.
