Indonesia - Mainland China Trade 2024 Q1: Deficit Narrows

Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Mainland China Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Mainland China reflects sustained demand weakness and a narrowing trade deficit in Q1 2024.

• $30.5B total trade volume with a $2.81B deficit for Indonesia, as weaker import growth in March partially offset earlier surges.
• Resource-for-Tech exchange: Indonesia supplies 55.5% of its exports to China as raw materials (iron, steel, fuels), while relying on Chinese machinery and electronics (49.3% of imports).
• Asymmetric interdependence: China holds the higher value-add position, with Indonesia’s commodity exports feeding China’s industrial base.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia-Mainland China Trade Trend in Q1 2024

Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Mainland China

• Total Volume: $13.83B in Q1 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY decline persisted across all months (-10.81% in Jan, -21.87% in Feb, -17.1% in Mar), signaling sustained demand weakness. No trade policy shifts were reported to contextualize the slump.
• Key Volatility: March saw a 19.01% MoM rebound after sharp drops in January (-20.98%) and February (-14.73%).

Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Mainland China

• Total Volume: $16.64B in Q1 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: Mixed YoY performance: +8.06% in Jan and +48.19% in Feb (surge likely reflecting inventory buildup), followed by a -19.6% contraction in March.
• Key Volatility: March imports plummeted -24.33% MoM, erasing gains from February’s 2.03% rise.

Indonesia - Mainland China Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: $2.81B trade deficit (Imports $16.64B > Exports $13.83B).
• Relationship Status: Indonesia remains a net importer, with reliance on Chinese goods outweighing export demand. The deficit narrowed slightly from 2023’s Q1 imbalance due to weaker import growth in March.

Indonesia Import Trend from Mainland China 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Indonesia Export Trend to Mainland China 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Indonesia Mainland China Trade Records

Indonesia-Mainland China Top Trading Products in Q1 2024

Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 Export is HS 72 (Iron & Steel), accounting for 28.19% of total exports to Mainland China.
• Demand Driver: Mainland China uses these raw materials (Iron & Steel, HS 27 - Fuels, HS 26 - Ores) for industrial processing and infrastructure development.
• Concentration: The top two categories (HS 72 and HS 27) dominate with 55.5% combined share, indicating high trade concentration in raw materials.

Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 Import is HS 84 (Machinery), making up 24.66% of total imports from Mainland China.
• Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, as HS 84 (Machinery) and HS 85 (Electrical Equipment) are high-tech imports essential for Indonesia’s industrial and manufacturing sectors.

Indonesia - Mainland China Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Indonesia exports raw materials (Iron, Steel, Fuels) to Mainland China, while importing machinery and electronics for industrial use.
• Value Chain Position: Mainland China holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced manufactured goods, while Indonesia provides upstream commodities.

Import Analysis by Product: Mainland China to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Mainland China (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Indonesia-Mainland China Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast for Indonesia-Mainland China Trade

The Indonesia-Mainland China trade relationship faces near-term headwinds, with exports likely to remain subdued due to weak Chinese demand for raw materials (HS 72, HS 27). However, March’s export rebound suggests potential stabilization if China’s industrial activity picks up. Imports may see volatility, as the Q1 surge in machinery (HS 84) and electronics (HS 85) was followed by a sharp March contraction—indicating uneven inventory cycles. Traders should prepare for a period of consolidation, with the deficit narrowing only if Indonesia accelerates export diversification beyond commodities.

Strategic Moves for Traders & Policymakers

• Lock in Long-Term Supply Contracts: Indonesian steel and fuel exporters must secure fixed-price agreements with Chinese buyers to mitigate price swings in volatile commodity markets.
• Diversify Import Sources for Critical Tech: Reduce overreliance on Chinese machinery by fast-tracking partnerships with Japan, South Korea, or the EU for high-tech equipment (HS 84/85).
• Push for Downstream Export Upgrades: Indonesian policymakers should incentivize value-added processing of raw materials (e.g., nickel-based batteries) to capture higher margins and reduce trade deficit exposure.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Indonesia - Mainland China trade perform in 2024 Q1?

Indonesia's exports to Mainland China totaled $13.83B, with a YoY decline across all months, while imports reached $16.64B, showing mixed YoY growth.

What are the top exports from Indonesia to Mainland China?

The top exports are HS 72 (Iron & Steel) and HS 27 (Fuels), accounting for 55.5% of total exports to Mainland China.

What does Indonesia import from Mainland China?

The top imports are HS 84 (Machinery) and HS 85 (Electrical Equipment), essential for Indonesia’s industrial and manufacturing sectors.

What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Mainland China?

Indonesia recorded a $2.81B trade deficit with Mainland China, though the gap narrowed slightly compared to Q1 2023.