Indonesia - Mainland China Trade 2023 Q4: Stable Resource-for-Tech Exchange

Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Mainland China Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Mainland China remains stable with balanced volumes in Q4 2023.

• $34.4B Total Trade, $1.09B Surplus: Indonesia maintains a net exporter position ($17.74B exports vs. $16.65B imports), though growth flatlined YoY.
• Resource-for-Tech Exchange: Indonesia - Mainland China trade statistics show raw materials (iron/steel, coal) dominate exports, while 45% of imports are machinery/electronics (HS 84, 85).
• Asymmetric Interdependence: Classic supplier-manufacturer dynamic, with China capturing higher value-add in the supply chain.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia-Mainland China Trade Trend in Q4 2023

Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Mainland China

• Total Volume: $17.74B in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth flat (0.0% across all months), indicating stagnant demand or pricing stability. No significant policy shifts reported.
• Key Volatility: November saw a -6.62% MoM drop, offset by December’s 8.64% rebound.

Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Mainland China

• Total Volume: $16.65B in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth flat (0.0%), reflecting steady supply chains. No disruptive events noted.
• Key Volatility: December imports dipped -4.67% MoM after November’s 6.86% rise.

Indonesia - Mainland China Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Surplus of $1.09B (Exports $17.74B > Imports $16.65B).
• Relationship Status: Indonesia maintains a net exporter role, though trade volumes are closely balanced.

Indonesia Import Trend from Mainland China 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Indonesia Export Trend to Mainland China 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Indonesia Mainland China Trade Records

Indonesia-Mainland China Top Trading Products in Q4 2023

Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 72 (Iron and steel), accounting for 28.99% of total exports to Mainland China.
• Demand Driver: Mainland China uses these raw materials for industrial processing, likely feeding its construction and manufacturing sectors.
• Concentration: The top two categories (HS 72 and HS 27) dominate with 54.7% combined share, indicating high trade concentration in raw materials.

Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 84 (Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery), making up 24.70% of total imports from Mainland China.
• Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, as machinery and electronics (HS 84, 85) comprise 45.03% of imports, essential for Indonesia’s industrial and infrastructure development.

Indonesia - Mainland China Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Indonesia exports raw materials (iron, steel, coal) and imports high-value machinery and electronics, reflecting a classic supplier-manufacturer dynamic.
• Value Chain Position: Mainland China holds the higher value-add position, with its exports dominated by complex manufactured goods, while Indonesia supplies lower-value raw materials.

Import Analysis by Product: Mainland China to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Mainland China (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Indonesia-Mainland China Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Indonesia’s trade with Mainland China is expected to remain stable in the near term, with modest growth potential driven by sustained demand for raw materials. The flat YoY growth in Q4 2023 suggests a period of consolidation, but the rebound in December exports signals resilience in key sectors like iron and steel (HS 72). However, volatility in monthly trade flows—particularly in machinery imports (HS 84)—calls for caution. Over the next year, Indonesia’s surplus may narrow if Mainland China’s industrial demand softens or if Indonesia accelerates diversification efforts.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Long-Term Supply Contracts: Indonesian exporters of iron and steel (HS 72) should secure fixed-price agreements to mitigate price volatility and stabilize revenue streams, given Mainland China’s reliance on these inputs.
• Diversify Tech Imports: Reduce overreliance on Mainland Chinese machinery (HS 84) by exploring alternative suppliers in Southeast Asia or India to safeguard against supply chain disruptions.
• Invest in Value-Add Processing: Shift from raw material exports to semi-finished or finished steel products to capture higher margins and reduce exposure to commodity price swings.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Indonesia - Mainland China trade perform in 2023 Q4?

Indonesia exported $17.74B and imported $16.65B, with flat YoY growth (0.0%) for both exports and imports, indicating stagnant demand and stable supply chains.

What are the top exports from Indonesia to Mainland China?

Iron and steel (HS 72) dominated, accounting for 28.99% of exports, followed by coal and other raw materials (HS 27), with the top two categories making up 54.7% combined.

What does Indonesia import from Mainland China?

Machinery and electronics (HS 84, 85) were the top imports, comprising 45.03% of total imports, reflecting Indonesia’s dependency on high-value manufactured goods.

What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Mainland China?

Indonesia maintained a surplus of $1.09B in Q4 2023, with exports ($17.74B) exceeding imports ($16.65B), reinforcing its net exporter role.