Indonesia - Japan Trade 2024 Q1: Shrinking Surplus
Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Japan Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Japan contracted in Q1 2024, with both exports and imports declining YoY.
- $1.84B Surplus, Shrinking Volumes: Indonesia maintained a trade surplus ($5.18B exports vs. $3.34B imports), but both flows fell YoY, signaling cooling demand.
- Resource-for-Tech Exchange: Indonesia - Japan trade statistics show a clear split: Indonesia supplies fuels and ores (43% of exports), while Japan dominates machinery and tech (21% of imports).
- Asymmetric Value Chain: Japan holds the high-value position, with Indonesia dependent on its industrial equipment—a classic raw materials-for-manufactured goods dynamic.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Indonesia-Japan Trade Trend in Q1 2024
Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Japan
- Total Volume: $5.18B in Q1 2024.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY decline persisted across all months, with January (-25.28%) showing the sharpest drop.
- February (-6.5%) and March (-10.44%) saw milder contractions, suggesting a partial recovery.
- Key Volatility: March recorded the highest MoM growth (+5.44%), indicating late-quarter momentum.
Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Japan
- Total Volume: $3.34B in Q1 2024.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY declines deepened, with March (-28.32%) marking the worst performance.
- February’s MoM rebound (+7.87%) failed to sustain, as March imports fell -6.7% sequentially.
- Key Volatility: January’s MoM drop (-12.86%) was the quarter’s steepest monthly contraction.
Indonesia - Japan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Trade surplus of $1.84B (Exports $5.18B > Imports $3.34B).
- Relationship Status: Indonesia maintains a clear net exporter role, though both trade flows are shrinking YoY.
Indonesia Import Trend from Japan 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 1.08B | -12.86% | -20.8% |
| Feb | 1.17B | 7.87% | -17.15% |
| Mar | 1.09B | -6.7% | -28.32% |
| Total | 3.34B | - | - |
Indonesia Export Trend to Japan 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 1.65B | -2.88% | -25.28% |
| Feb | 1.72B | 3.93% | -6.5% |
| Mar | 1.81B | 5.44% | -10.44% |
| Total | 5.18B | - | - |
Get Historical Indonesia Japan Trade Records
Indonesia-Japan Top Trading Products in Q1 2024
Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Japan
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 Export is HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products) at 29.16% share.
- Demand Driver: Japan buys these for energy security and industrial processing needs.
- Concentration: The top two categories (HS 27 & 26, ores) account for 43.12%, indicating moderate concentration in raw materials.
Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Japan
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 Import is HS Code 84 (Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery) at 20.71% share.
- Dependency Nature: Reflects critical technology dependency, as Japan supplies high-value industrial machinery.
Indonesia - Japan Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Indonesia exports raw materials (fuels, ores) and imports high-tech machinery from Japan.
- Value Chain Position: Japan holds the higher value-add position, dominating complex exports (machinery, vehicles) while Indonesia supplies commodities.
Import Analysis by Product: Japan to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 84 | 691.68M | 20.71% |
| 72 | 463.73M | 13.89% |
| 87 | 460.34M | 13.79% |
| 85 | 322.02M | 9.64% |
| 40 | 191.35M | 5.73% |
| 39 | 147.39M | 4.41% |
| 74 | 112.10M | 3.36% |
| 73 | 109.54M | 3.28% |
| 90 | 85.68M | 2.57% |
| 99 | 82.32M | 2.47% |
Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Japan (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 1.51B | 29.16% |
| 26 | 723.54M | 13.96% |
| 85 | 404.95M | 7.81% |
| 71 | 298.79M | 5.77% |
| 75 | 263.41M | 5.08% |
| 40 | 196.90M | 3.80% |
| 44 | 190.29M | 3.67% |
| 84 | 157.02M | 3.03% |
| 14 | 140.71M | 2.72% |
| 39 | 133.46M | 2.58% |
Check Detailed Indonesia-Japan Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
The Forecast
Indonesia’s trade surplus with Japan is likely to persist in Q2 2024, but both exports and imports will face continued headwinds. Commodity demand (HS 27, 26) may stabilize as Japan’s industrial activity shows tentative recovery signs, but high-tech machinery imports (HS 84) could remain subdued due to Japan’s sluggish domestic investment. The Indonesia-Japan trade forecast hinges on energy price volatility and Japan’s willingness to re-engage in long-term supply contracts. Traders should brace for a period of uneven recovery, with late 2024 offering potential upside if global manufacturing rebounds.
Strategic Moves
- Lock in Energy Contracts: Indonesian exporters of mineral fuels (HS 27) must secure multi-quarter agreements with Japanese buyers to mitigate price swings and ensure stable revenue streams.
- Diversify Tech Suppliers: Indonesian manufacturers reliant on Japanese machinery (HS 84) should scout alternative suppliers in South Korea or Germany to reduce dependency and negotiate better terms.
- Push Processed Exports: Indonesia’s trade ministry must incentivize value-added exports (e.g., refined nickel products) to Japan, leveraging the resource-for-tech model while climbing the value chain.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Indonesia - Japan trade perform in 2024 Q1?
Indonesia's exports to Japan totaled $5.18B, while imports were $3.34B, both showing YoY declines. The trade surplus stood at $1.84B, though contractions persisted in both directions.
What are the top exports from Indonesia to Japan?
Mineral fuels, oils, and distillation products (HS Code 27) dominated exports, followed by ores (HS Code 26), together accounting for 43.12% of shipments.
What does Indonesia import from Japan?
Nuclear reactors, boilers, and machinery (HS Code 84) were the top imports, reflecting Indonesia's reliance on Japan for high-tech industrial equipment.
What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Japan?
Indonesia maintained a trade surplus of $1.84B in Q1 2024, though both exports and imports contracted YoY, indicating shrinking bilateral trade volumes.
Indonesia - Japan Trade 2024 Whole Year: $3.3B Surplus
Indonesia Japan trade trend shows a $3.3B surplus, with fuels and ores dominating exports. Discover Indonesia Japan top trading product insights via yTrade data.
Indonesia - Japan Trade 2024 Q2: $1.46B Surplus
Indonesia's trade surplus with Japan hits $1.46B in Q2 2024, fueled by resource-for-tech exchange. Explore Indonesia Japan trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
