Indonesia - Japan Trade 2023 Q1: Resource-for-Tech Surge

Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Japan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Japan shows growth with notable volatility in Q1 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Indonesia maintains a $1.77B trade surplus ($6.07B exports vs. $4.30B imports), though monthly fluctuations highlight demand instability.
• Exchange Structure: Indonesia - Japan trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech dynamic—energy exports (40.8% of total) fund imports of high-tech machinery (21.8% of total).
• Strategic Interdependence: Highly complementary economies, with Japan relying on Indonesian raw materials and Indonesia dependent on Japanese industrial technology.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia-Japan Trade Trend in Q1 2023

Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Japan

• Total Volume: $6.07B in Q1 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was mixed, with January surging 34.11% but February and March declining (-1.7% and -3.17%, respectively).
  • No specific trade news to explain the volatility.
• Key Volatility: February saw a sharp MoM drop (-16.95%), followed by a 10.08% rebound in March.

Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Japan

• Total Volume: $4.30B in Q1 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY trends were erratic: February spiked 18.39%, while March dropped 11.0%.
• Key Volatility: March had the highest MoM growth (+7.85%) after a flat January.

Indonesia - Japan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade surplus of $1.77B (Exports $6.07B vs. Imports $4.30B).
• Relationship Status: Indonesia maintains a net exporter role, though import volatility suggests fluctuating demand for Japanese goods.

Indonesia Import Trend from Japan 2023 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Indonesia Export Trend to Japan 2023 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Indonesia Japan Trade Records

Indonesia-Japan Top Trading Products in Q1 2023

Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Japan

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products) at 40.79% of total exports to Japan.
• Demand Driver: Japan imports these for energy security and industrial processing, reflecting Indonesia's role as a key energy supplier.
• Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with HS 27 alone accounting for over 40% of exports.

Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Japan

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 84 (Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery) at 21.77% of total imports from Japan.
• Dependency Nature: Imports are dominated by high-tech machinery and equipment, indicating critical technology dependency for Indonesia's industrial and infrastructure development.

Indonesia - Japan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity—Indonesia exports raw materials (energy, metals) while importing advanced machinery and industrial goods from Japan.
• Value Chain Position: Japan holds the higher value-add position, supplying complex machinery (HS 84, 85) against Indonesia's commodity-driven exports (HS 27, 26).

Import Analysis by Product: Japan to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Japan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Indonesia-Japan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Indonesia’s trade surplus with Japan is expected to hold steady in Q2 2023, supported by sustained demand for mineral fuels (HS 27) amid Japan’s energy needs. However, volatility in monthly export growth signals potential supply chain disruptions or pricing fluctuations, requiring close monitoring. Imports of Japanese machinery (HS 84) will likely rebound as Indonesia accelerates infrastructure projects, but erratic demand patterns may persist. The Indonesia-Japan trade forecast hinges on stable commodity prices and Japan’s industrial appetite—any downturn could tighten margins for Indonesian exporters.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Energy Contracts: Indonesian exporters of mineral fuels should secure long-term agreements with Japanese buyers to stabilize revenue amid price volatility.
• Diversify Tech Imports: Indonesian manufacturers must explore alternative suppliers for high-tech machinery (HS 84) to reduce dependency on Japan and mitigate supply chain risks.
• Monitor Trade Policies: Traders should track Japan’s energy diversification strategies and Indonesia’s export regulations to preempt shifts in demand or tariffs.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Indonesia - Japan trade perform in 2023 Q1?

Indonesia exported $6.07B to Japan and imported $4.30B, with mixed YoY growth trends—January exports surged 34.11%, while March imports dropped 11.0%.

What are the top exports from Indonesia to Japan?

Mineral fuels, oils, and distillation products (HS 27) dominated, accounting for 40.79% of Indonesia's exports to Japan.

What does Indonesia import from Japan?

Nuclear reactors, boilers, and machinery (HS 84) were the top imports, making up 21.77% of total imports from Japan.

What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Japan?

Indonesia maintained a trade surplus of $1.77B in Q1 2023, driven by higher exports of energy products.