Indonesia - Brazil Trade 2023 Q4: Stagnant Growth, Deficit Concerns

Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Brazil Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Brazil remains stagnant in Q4 2023, marked by flat growth and pronounced volatility.

• Deficit-Driven Trade: Indonesia runs a $1.39B trade deficit with Brazil ($1.72B imports vs. $331.44M exports), reflecting heavy reliance on Brazilian agricultural inputs.
• Resource-for-Resource Exchange: Indonesia - Brazil trade statistics show a complementary exchange—processed fats/oils (HS 15) and machinery (HS 85, 87) for Brazil’s agricultural residues (HS 23) and sugars (HS 17).
• Moderate Interdependence: The partnership leans on resource complementarity, with Indonesia holding a slight value-add edge in processed exports.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia-Brazil Trade Trend in Q4 2023

Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Brazil

• Total Volume: $331.44M in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth flat (0.0%), indicating stagnant demand. MoM volatility included a 20.48% surge in October and a -15.01% drop in December.
• Key Volatility: December’s sharp MoM decline (-15.01%) contrasts with earlier quarterly gains.

Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Brazil

• Total Volume: $1.72B in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth flat (0.0%), but MoM swings were pronounced: an 81.62% spike in November followed by a 13.38% rise in December.
• Key Volatility: November’s import surge (81.62% MoM) dominated the quarter.

Indonesia - Brazil Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $1.39B (Imports $1.72B > Exports $331.44M).
• Relationship Status: Heavy import reliance on Brazil, with exports failing to offset inbound trade volume.

Indonesia Import Trend from Brazil 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Indonesia Export Trend to Brazil 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Indonesia Brazil Trade Records

Indonesia-Brazil Top Trading Products in Q4 2023

Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Brazil

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 15 (Animal/Vegetable Fats & Oils), accounting for 26.78% of total exports to Brazil.
• Demand Driver: Brazil likely uses these fats and oils for industrial processing, such as food production or biofuels.
• Concentration: No single category dominates (>50% share), but the top 3 exports (HS 15, 87, 85) collectively make up 53.19%, indicating moderate concentration.

Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Brazil

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 23 (Residues & Waste from Food Industries), representing 32.76% of total imports from Brazil.
• Dependency Nature: This suggests a reliance on Brazil for agricultural by-products, likely for feed or fertilizer, indicating food security or raw material dependency.

Indonesia - Brazil Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity. Indonesia exports processed fats/oils (HS 15) and machinery/electronics (HS 85, 87) while importing agricultural residues (HS 23) and sugars (HS 17) from Brazil.
• Value Chain Position: Indonesia holds a slightly higher value-add position, exporting more processed goods (e.g., machinery, footwear) compared to Brazil’s bulk agricultural exports.

Import Analysis by Product: Brazil to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Brazil (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Indonesia-Brazil Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Indonesia-Brazil trade relationship is likely to remain volatile in the near term, with Indonesia’s heavy import dependency and stagnant export growth signaling persistent trade deficits. The sharp MoM swings in both exports (-15.01% in December) and imports (+81.62% in November) suggest underlying demand instability, possibly tied to commodity price fluctuations or supply chain disruptions. However, the complementary nature of trade—Indonesia’s processed fats/oils and machinery for Brazil’s agricultural residues—provides a foundation for rebalancing if exporters capitalize on niche demand. Without intervention, the deficit could widen further in 2024, especially if Brazil’s agricultural output faces climate or logistical challenges.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Markets for HS 15: Indonesian exporters of animal/vegetable fats (HS 15) must reduce reliance on Brazil by targeting emerging markets in Africa or Southeast Asia, where demand for biofuels and food processing inputs is rising.
• Lock in Long-Term Contracts for Critical Imports: Given Brazil’s dominance in agricultural residues (HS 23), Indonesian buyers should secure multi-year supply agreements to hedge against price spikes and ensure stable feedstock for domestic industries.
• Invest in Export Promotion for High-Value Goods: Indonesia’s machinery and electronics (HS 85, 87) have untapped potential in Brazil. Trade missions and tariff incentives could help offset the deficit by expanding sales of these higher-margin products.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Indonesia - Brazil trade perform in 2023 Q4?

Indonesia's exports to Brazil totaled $331.44M, while imports reached $1.72B, showing stagnant YoY growth (0.0%) for both. MoM volatility included sharp swings, like an 81.62% import surge in November.

What are the top exports from Indonesia to Brazil?

The top exports are HS 15 (Animal/Vegetable Fats & Oils), HS 87 (Vehicles), and HS 85 (Machinery/Electronics), collectively accounting for 53.19% of total exports.

What does Indonesia import from Brazil?

Indonesia primarily imports HS 23 (Residues & Waste from Food Industries) and HS 17 (Sugars) from Brazil, with HS 23 alone representing 32.76% of total imports.

What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Brazil?

Indonesia recorded a trade deficit of $1.39B in Q4 2023, driven by heavy reliance on Brazilian agricultural imports. The gap remained stable YoY (0.0% growth).