Indonesia - Australia Trade 2024 Q2: Widening Deficit

Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Australia Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Australia shows robust growth but a widening deficit in Q2 2024.

• Economic Pulse: Indonesia runs a $1.06B trade deficit with Australia, importing $1.82B (2.4x exports) despite strong YoY export growth (~49%). Volatility in monthly flows signals demand shifts.
• Exchange Structure: Indonesia - Australia trade statistics reveal a Resource-for-Tech Complementarity—Indonesia supplies iron/steel (41% of exports) while relying on Australian mineral fuels (24% of imports) for energy security.
• Strategic Interdependence: The partnership is highly asymmetric, with Australia holding the value-add edge in energy and processed goods, while Indonesia remains a critical supplier of industrial inputs.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia-Australia Trade Trend in Q2 2024

Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Australia

• Total Volume: $755.67M in Q2 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth remained robust, averaging ~49% across April-May, signaling sustained demand for Indonesian exports in Australia.
  • No specific trade news to contextualize the trend.
• Key Volatility: April saw a sharp MoM drop (-26.34%), followed by a 17.43% rebound in May.

Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Australia

• Total Volume: $1.82B in Q2 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was volatile: +33.01% in April but slowed to +7.88% in May, suggesting potential demand moderation.
• Key Volatility: April recorded the highest MoM surge (+19.03%), while May growth tapered to +7.36%.

Indonesia - Australia Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $1.06B (Imports $1.82B > Exports $755.67M).
• Relationship Status: Indonesia remains a net importer from Australia, with imports 2.4x exports, indicating heavy reliance on Australian goods.

Indonesia Import Trend from Australia 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Indonesia Export Trend to Australia 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Indonesia Australia Trade Records

Indonesia-Australia Top Trading Products in Q2 2024

Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Australia

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS Code 73 (Iron and steel products), accounting for 40.81% of total exports to Australia.
• Demand Driver: Australia likely imports these for industrial processing, indicating a reliance on Indonesia for raw or semi-processed materials.
• Concentration: The trade is highly concentrated, with iron and steel alone making up over 40% of exports.

Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Australia

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils, and related products), representing 23.62% of total imports from Australia.
• Dependency Nature: This suggests energy security dependency, as Indonesia relies on Australia for critical fuel supplies.

Indonesia - Australia Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: The trade follows a Resource-for-Tech Complementarity model. Indonesia exports raw materials (iron/steel) while importing energy and industrial inputs (mineral fuels, ores).
• Value Chain Position: Australia holds a higher value-add position, supplying energy and processed minerals, while Indonesia primarily provides lower-value industrial inputs.

Import Analysis by Product: Australia to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Australia (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Indonesia-Australia Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Indonesia-Australia trade relationship is poised for steady growth in the coming quarters, driven by sustained demand for Indonesian iron and steel exports and Australia’s critical role in supplying energy resources. However, volatility in import growth signals potential headwinds, particularly if Australia’s energy exports face pricing or supply chain disruptions. Given the structural complementarity—Indonesia supplying raw materials and Australia providing high-value inputs—the trade deficit may persist unless Indonesia diversifies its export basket or negotiates more favorable terms. Traders should monitor commodity price fluctuations and policy shifts, as these will heavily influence the Indonesia-Australia trade forecast.

Strategic Moves

• Secure Long-term Contracts for Critical Imports: Indonesian importers of mineral fuels should lock in stable pricing and supply agreements with Australian suppliers to mitigate energy security risks.
• Diversify Export Markets for Iron and Steel: Indonesian exporters must reduce reliance on Australia by targeting emerging markets in Southeast Asia and Africa, where infrastructure demand is rising.
• Leverage Trade Agreements to Reduce Deficit: Indonesian policymakers should push for bilateral talks to expand market access for processed goods, shifting from raw material exports to higher-value products.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Indonesia - Australia trade perform in 2024 Q2?

Indonesia's exports to Australia totaled $755.67M, with robust YoY growth (~49% in April-May), while imports from Australia reached $1.82B, showing volatile YoY growth (+33.01% in April, +7.88% in May).

What are the top exports from Indonesia to Australia?

Iron and steel products (HS Code 73) dominate Indonesia's exports to Australia, accounting for 40.81% of total shipments, reflecting Australia's reliance on Indonesian raw or semi-processed materials.

What does Indonesia import from Australia?

Mineral fuels, oils, and related products (HS Code 27) are Indonesia's top imports from Australia, making up 23.62% of total imports, indicating energy security dependency.

What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Australia?

Indonesia recorded a trade deficit of $1.06B with Australia in Q2 2024, with imports ($1.82B) exceeding exports ($755.67M) by 2.4x, highlighting heavy reliance on Australian goods.