Chile - Mainland China Trade 2023 Q4: Growth with Volatility

Key Market Takeaways: Chile - Mainland China Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Chile and Mainland China shows growth with volatility in Q4 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Chile maintains a $4.75B trade surplus, exporting $9.89B (primarily ores) while importing $5.14B (mostly electronics). Volatility in monthly flows hints at demand or pricing shifts.
• Exchange Structure: The trade is a classic resource-for-tech model—Chile supplies 53% of its exports as raw materials (HS 26) while relying on Mainland China for 23% of imports in high-tech machinery (HS 85).
• Strategic Interdependence: Highly complementary but asymmetric—China holds the value-add advantage, while Chile remains a critical commodity supplier.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Chile-Mainland China Trade Trend in Q4 2023

Chile Export Performance: Shipments to Mainland China

• Total Volume: $9.89B in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context: Mixed YoY performance—October saw a 5.69% YoY increase, but December dropped sharply (-6.54% YoY). No clear trend due to volatility.
• Key Volatility: December recorded a 10.04% MoM surge, the highest in the quarter, offsetting November’s slight decline (-0.32% MoM).

Chile Import Performance: Sourcing from Mainland China

• Total Volume: $5.14B in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth was inconsistent—December rose 6.91% YoY, but October and November fell (-2.5% and -5.26% YoY, respectively).
• Key Volatility: October’s imports spiked 11.55% MoM, while November dropped -8.65% MoM, reflecting erratic demand or supply adjustments.

Chile - Mainland China Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Chile held a trade surplus of $4.75B (Exports $9.89B > Imports $5.14B).
• Relationship Status: Strong net exporter role, with exports nearly double imports. Volatility in both directions suggests shifting demand or pricing pressures, but no structural dependency.

Chile Import Trend from Mainland China 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Chile Export Trend to Mainland China 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Chile Mainland China Trade Records

Chile-Mainland China Top Trading Products in Q4 2023

Chile Export Profile: What Does Chile Sell to Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 26 (Ores, slag, and ash), accounting for 53.36% of total exports to Mainland China.
• Demand Driver: Mainland China uses these raw materials for industrial processing, particularly in steel production and manufacturing.
• Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with HS 26 alone making up over half of exports.

Chile Import Profile: What Does Chile Buy from Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 85 (Electrical machinery and equipment), representing 22.62% of total imports from Mainland China.
• Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, as these imports include high-tech components essential for Chile's industrial and consumer electronics sectors.

Chile - Mainland China Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Chile exports raw materials (ores, copper) while importing machinery and electronics from Mainland China.
• Value Chain Position: Mainland China holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced manufactured goods, while Chile remains a key supplier of primary commodities.

Import Analysis by Product: Mainland China to Chile (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Chile to Mainland China (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Chile-Mainland China Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Chile - Mainland China trade relationship is expected to remain robust but volatile in the near term, driven by Mainland China’s sustained demand for Chilean raw materials, particularly ores (HS 26), and Chile’s reliance on Mainland China’s high-tech imports (HS 85). However, the mixed YoY performance in Q4 2023 signals potential headwinds, such as fluctuating commodity prices and supply chain adjustments. Traders should anticipate short-term volatility but can capitalize on the long-term complementary trade model, where Chile’s resource exports and Mainland China’s manufactured goods create a stable, albeit uneven, growth trajectory.

Strategic Moves

• Secure Long-term Contracts for Ores: Chilean exporters must lock in multi-year agreements with Mainland Chinese buyers to mitigate price volatility and ensure stable revenue streams, given the dominance of HS 26 in trade.
• Diversify Import Sources for Critical Tech: Chilean importers should reduce dependency on Mainland China for HS 85 products by exploring alternative suppliers in Southeast Asia or Europe to hedge against geopolitical or supply chain disruptions.
• Monitor Trade Policy Shifts: Both exporters and importers must stay alert to potential changes in Mainland China’s industrial or environmental policies, which could abruptly alter demand for Chilean commodities or export regulations.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Chile - Mainland China trade perform in 2023 Q4?

Chile exported $9.89B to Mainland China and imported $5.14B, with mixed YoY growth—exports rose in October but fell in December, while imports showed erratic trends.

What are the top exports from Chile to Mainland China?

HS 26 (Ores, slag, and ash) dominated Chile’s exports, accounting for 53.36% of total shipments to Mainland China.

What does Chile import from Mainland China?

HS 85 (Electrical machinery and equipment) was the top import, representing 22.62% of Chile’s total imports from Mainland China.

What is the trade balance between Chile and Mainland China?

Chile held a trade surplus of $4.75B in Q4 2023, with exports nearly double imports. Volatility suggests shifting demand but no structural dependency.