Chile - Japan Trade 2023 Q4: Declining Trade Volumes

Key Market Takeaways: Chile - Japan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Chile and Japan cooled in Q4 2023, with declining YoY trade volumes in both directions.

• Economic Pulse: Chile maintained a $1.11B trade surplus with Japan ($1.83B exports vs. $717.75M imports), but both flows saw sharp YoY contractions, signaling weakening demand.
• Exchange Structure: Chile - Japan trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech complementarity—Chile supplies ores (60.6% of exports) while Japan delivers refined fuels (42.7% of imports).
• Strategic Interdependence: The partnership remains anchored in raw material supply chains, with Japan holding the higher value-add position in processed goods.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Chile-Japan Trade Trend in Q4 2023

Chile Export Performance: Shipments to Japan

• Total Volume: $1.83B in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY decline persisted across all months (-26.52% in Oct, -6.39% in Nov, -11.64% in Dec), suggesting sustained demand weakness or competitive shifts. No news to contextualize.
• Key Volatility: November saw the sharpest MoM jump (+29.18%), while December growth nearly flatlined (+0.72%).

Chile Import Performance: Sourcing from Japan

• Total Volume: $717.75M in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY contractions deepened (-44.17% in Nov, -45.85% in Dec), indicating reduced procurement or inventory drawdowns. No news to explain.
• Key Volatility: October’s MoM surge (+104.1%) was followed by a -59.9% collapse in November, reflecting extreme volatility.

Chile - Japan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Chile held a $1.11B trade surplus with Japan (Exports $1.83B > Imports $717.75M).
• Relationship Status: Chile remains a net exporter, but declining YoY figures in both flows suggest cooling bilateral trade intensity.

Chile Import Trend from Japan 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Chile Export Trend to Japan 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Chile Japan Trade Records

Chile-Japan Top Trading Products in Q4 2023

Chile Export Profile: What Does Chile Sell to Japan

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS Code 26 (Ores, slag, and ash) with 60.61% share.
• Demand Driver: Japan uses these raw materials for industrial processing, likely in steel and metal production.
• Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with ores alone accounting for over 60% of exports.

Chile Import Profile: What Does Chile Buy from Japan

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) with 42.71% share.
• Dependency Nature: Reflects energy security dependency, as Japan supplies refined petroleum products critical for Chile’s energy needs.

Chile - Japan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Chile exports raw materials (ores, seafood) and imports high-value refined fuels and machinery from Japan.
• Value Chain Position: Japan holds the higher value-add position, supplying processed goods (fuels, vehicles) while Chile provides unprocessed commodities.

Import Analysis by Product: Japan to Chile (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Chile to Japan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Chile-Japan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Chile-Japan trade relationship faces near-term headwinds, with declining YoY figures in both exports and imports signaling cooling demand. Japan’s reduced procurement of Chilean ores (-26.52% YoY in Q4) and Chile’s plummeting imports of Japanese refined fuels (-45.85% YoY in December) suggest a period of consolidation. However, the structural complementarity—Chile’s raw materials for Japan’s high-value processed goods—remains intact. Traders should anticipate volatility in Q1 2024, with potential stabilization if Japan’s industrial demand rebounds and Chile’s energy needs realign.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Long-Term Ore Contracts: Chilean miners must secure multi-year agreements with Japanese steel producers to mitigate price swings and stabilize export revenue.
• Diversify Energy Imports: Chile should reduce reliance on Japanese refined fuels by accelerating partnerships with alternative suppliers (e.g., South Korea, Singapore) to hedge against supply shocks.
• Push Value-Add Exports: Chilean seafood and fruit exporters must target Japan’s premium retail channels, leveraging trade promotion programs to offset declining commodity demand.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Chile - Japan trade perform in 2023 Q4?

Chile's exports to Japan totaled $1.83B, but saw a YoY decline across all months. Imports from Japan were $717.75M, with deeper YoY contractions.

What are the top exports from Chile to Japan?

HS Code 26 (Ores, slag, and ash) dominates, accounting for 60.61% of Chile's exports to Japan.

What does Chile import from Japan?

HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) is the top import, representing 42.71% of Chile's purchases from Japan.

What is the trade balance between Chile and Japan?

Chile held a $1.11B trade surplus with Japan in Q4 2023, though bilateral trade intensity showed signs of cooling.