Brazil - United States Trade 2025 Q1: Deficit with Momentum

Key Market Takeaways: Brazil - United States Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Brazil and United States shows mixed growth with underlying volatility in 2025 Q1.

• Deficit with Momentum: Brazil ran a $1.20B trade deficit (imports $10.89B > exports $9.69B), but U.S. goods demand grew YoY (up to +17.58%), outpacing Brazil’s erratic export performance.
• Resource-for-Tech Exchange: Brazil - United States trade statistics reveal a complementary flow—Brazil supplies fuels and raw materials (HS 27, 16.99% of exports) while importing high-value machinery (HS 84, 28.65% of imports).
• Asymmetric Value Chain: The U.S. holds the strategic advantage, with Brazil dependent on its technology inputs, reinforcing a supplier-manufacturer dynamic.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Brazil-United States Trade Trend in Q1 2025

Brazil Export Performance: Shipments to United States

• Total Volume: $9.69B in Q1 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY performance was mixed: February saw a sharp 21.44% surge, but March dropped 15.52%. No clear directional trend.
  • Key Volatility: January recorded the steepest MoM decline (-11.69%), while February’s YoY spike (+21.44%) was the standout.

Brazil Import Performance: Sourcing from United States

• Total Volume: $10.89B in Q1 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Strong YoY growth across all months (6.55% to 17.58%), suggesting sustained demand for U.S. goods.
  • Key Volatility: February’s MoM dip (-3.83%) was offset by March’s 6.54% rebound.

Brazil - United States Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $1.20B (Imports $10.89B > Exports $9.69B).
• Relationship Status: Brazil remains a net importer from the U.S., with imports outpacing exports by 12.4%. No structural shift in trade dependency observed.

Brazil Import Trend from United States 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Brazil Export Trend to United States 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Brazil United States Trade Records

Brazil-United States Top Trading Products in Q1 2025

Brazil Export Profile: What Does Brazil Sell to United States

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products) at 16.99% of total exports.
• Demand Driver: United States imports these for industrial processing and energy needs.
• Concentration: No single category dominates; top 3 exports (HS 27, 72, 84) combine for 39.68%, indicating moderate diversification.

Brazil Import Profile: What Does Brazil Buy from United States

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 84 (Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery) at 28.65% of total imports.
• Dependency Nature: Reflects critical technology dependency, as machinery and equipment dominate imports.

Brazil - United States Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Brazil exports raw materials (fuels, iron/steel, agriculture) while importing high-value machinery and pharmaceuticals.
• Value Chain Position: United States holds the higher value-add position, with Brazil supplying inputs for its industrial base.

Import Analysis by Product: United States to Brazil (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Brazil to United States (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Brazil-United States Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast for Brazil - United States Trade

The Brazil - United States trade relationship in Q2 2025 is expected to remain volatile but resilient. While Brazil’s exports may face continued fluctuations due to uneven demand for mineral fuels and agricultural goods, imports of U.S. machinery and technology are likely to sustain their upward trajectory, reinforcing the trade deficit. The resource-for-tech complementarity will persist, but exporters should prepare for potential price swings in key commodities like HS 27 (mineral fuels). Long-term, Brazil’s reliance on U.S. high-value imports could deepen unless domestic industrial capacity improves.

Strategic Moves for Traders & Policymakers

• Lock in Energy Contracts: Brazilian fuel exporters should secure long-term agreements with U.S. buyers to mitigate price volatility, especially as global energy markets remain unstable.
• Diversify Export Markets: Reduce dependency on U.S. demand by targeting emerging Asian markets for agricultural and steel products (HS 72), balancing trade exposure.
• Boost Local Tech Adoption: Brazilian importers should negotiate joint ventures or tech-transfer clauses with U.S. machinery suppliers (HS 84) to gradually reduce dependency and build domestic capabilities.

Act now—volatility demands proactive strategy, not reaction.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Brazil - United States trade perform in 2025 Q1?

Brazil exported $9.69B to the U.S. with mixed YoY growth, while imports from the U.S. totaled $10.89B, showing strong YoY increases across all months.

What are the top exports from Brazil to United States?

The top exports are Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products (HS 27), followed by iron/steel (HS 72) and machinery (HS 84), combining for 39.68% of total exports.

What does Brazil import from United States?

The top import is Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery (HS 84) at 28.65% of total imports, reflecting Brazil’s reliance on U.S. technology and equipment.

What is the trade balance between Brazil and United States?

Brazil had a trade deficit of $1.20B with the U.S. in Q1 2025, with imports exceeding exports by 12.4%. No structural shift in trade dependency was observed.