Brazil - United States Trade 2023 Q4: Surplus Amid Volatility

Key Market Takeaways: Brazil - United States Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Brazil and United States maintained a net exporter role despite volatile growth in Q4 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Brazil posted a $0.7B trade surplus ($10.25B exports vs. $9.55B imports), though U.S. demand for Brazilian goods saw mixed YoY swings (+5.87% to -5.25%) while imports from the U.S. fell sharply (-24.9% YoY avg).
• Exchange Structure: Brazil - United States trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech complementarity—Brazil supplies mineral fuels (19.5% of exports) and imports refined fuels (26.5% of imports) plus high-tech machinery (HS 84, 90).
• Strategic Interdependence: The partnership hinges on Brazil’s commodity exports and U.S. value-add manufacturing, but weakening U.S. import demand signals potential recalibration.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Brazil-United States Trade Trend in Q4 2023

Brazil Export Performance: Shipments to United States

• Total Volume: $10.25B in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Mixed YoY performance: +5.87% in October, +19.2% in November, but -5.25% in December.
  • No specific trade news to explain fluctuations.
• Key Volatility: November saw the highest YoY growth (+19.2%), while December posted a decline (-5.25%).

Brazil Import Performance: Sourcing from United States

• Total Volume: $9.55B in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Consistent YoY declines: -24.92% (Oct), -27.44% (Nov), -23.11% (Dec).
  • No relevant news to contextualize the contraction.
• Key Volatility: Sharpest MoM drop in November (-23.89%), followed by a partial rebound in December (+14.45%).

Brazil - United States Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Brazil recorded a trade surplus of $0.7B (Exports: $10.25B > Imports: $9.55B).
• Relationship Status: Maintained a net exporter role, though import demand from the U.S. weakened significantly YoY.

Brazil Import Trend from United States 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Brazil Export Trend to United States 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Brazil United States Trade Records

Brazil-United States Top Trading Products in Q4 2023

Brazil Export Profile: What Does Brazil Sell to United States

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 27 (Mineral Fuels, Oils) at 19.50% of total exports.
• Demand Driver: United States imports these for industrial processing and energy needs.
• Concentration: Trade is not dominated by a single category; top 3 exports (HS 27, 72, 84) combine for 45.10%.

Brazil Import Profile: What Does Brazil Buy from United States

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 27 (Mineral Fuels, Oils) at 26.47% of total imports.
• Dependency Nature: Reflects energy security dependency, with high-tech machinery (HS 84, 90) also critical.

Brazil - United States Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity—Brazil exports raw materials (HS 27, 72) and imports refined fuels (HS 27) and machinery (HS 84, 90).
• Value Chain Position: United States holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced machinery (HS 84, 90) while Brazil provides commodities (HS 27, 72).

Import Analysis by Product: United States to Brazil (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Brazil to United States (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Brazil-United States Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Brazil’s trade surplus with the United States is likely to persist in Q1 2024, driven by steady demand for mineral fuels (HS 27) and industrial commodities. However, the sharp YoY decline in U.S. imports signals potential softening in bilateral trade momentum, possibly due to shifting energy policies or inventory adjustments. Exporters should anticipate volatility in monthly figures, particularly for high-value machinery (HS 84, 90), where U.S. dominance in value-add could tighten margins for Brazilian buyers. The Brazil - United States trade forecast hinges on energy market stability and Brazil’s ability to diversify beyond raw material exports.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Energy Contracts: Brazilian fuel exporters should secure long-term agreements with U.S. refiners to mitigate price swings, leveraging the structural demand for HS 27.
• Diversify Import Sources: Reduce dependency on U.S. high-tech machinery (HS 84, 90) by exploring alternative suppliers in the EU or Asia to counterbalance trade risks.
• Boost Value-Add Exports: Invest in downstream processing for commodities like iron/steel (HS 72) to capture higher margins and reduce reliance on raw material sales.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Brazil - United States trade perform in 2023 Q4?

Brazil exported $10.25B to the United States (mixed YoY growth) and imported $9.55B (consistent YoY declines), resulting in a $0.7B trade surplus.

What are the top exports from Brazil to United States?

Mineral Fuels, Oils (HS 27) lead at 19.50%, followed by HS 72 and HS 84, combining for 45.10% of total exports.

What does Brazil import from United States?

Mineral Fuels, Oils (HS 27) dominate at 26.47%, with high-tech machinery (HS 84, 90) also critical for Brazil’s imports.

What is the trade balance between Brazil and United States?

Brazil maintained a trade surplus of $0.7B in Q4 2023, though U.S. import demand weakened sharply (YoY declines of ~24-27%).