Brazil - Russia Trade 2025 Q1: Deficit & Growth

Key Market Takeaways: Brazil - Russia Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Brazil and Russia shows strong export growth but a heavy import dependency in Q1 2025.

• Economic Pulse: Brazil runs a $2.23B trade deficit with Russia, driven by $2.57B in imports (mostly energy) vs. $338.93M in exports (surge in agricultural shipments).
• Exchange Structure: Brazil-Russia trade statistics reveal a resource-for-resource exchange—Brazil supplies coffee/spices (40% of exports) while relying on Russian mineral fuels (62% of imports).
• Strategic Interdependence: Highly complementary but imbalanced: Brazil’s agricultural exports grow rapidly, but energy security ties to Russia remain dominant.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Brazil-Russia Trade Trend in Q1 2025

Brazil Export Performance: Shipments to Russia

• Total Volume: $338.93M in Q1 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Strong YoY growth across all months (Jan: +68.8%, Feb: +110.08%, Mar: +132.09%), indicating robust demand or base effects.
  • No specific trade news to explain the surge.
• Key Volatility: March saw a sharp MoM rebound (+57.77%) after February’s -24.82% drop.

Brazil Import Performance: Sourcing from Russia

• Total Volume: $2.57B in Q1 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Mixed YoY performance (Jan: +4.46%, Feb: -13.92%, Mar: +14.75%), suggesting uneven trade flows.
• Key Volatility: March imports spiked 52.21% MoM, offsetting February’s -26.58% decline.

Brazil - Russia Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Brazil ran a trade deficit of $2.23B (Imports $2.57B vs. Exports $338.93M).
• Relationship Status: Heavy reliance on Russian imports, with exports growing but remaining marginal in comparison.

Brazil Import Trend from Russia 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Brazil Export Trend to Russia 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Brazil Russia Trade Records

Brazil-Russia Top Trading Products in Q1 2025

Brazil Export Profile: What Does Brazil Sell to Russia

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 09 (Coffee, tea, and spices) at 40.12% of total exports to Russia.
• Demand Driver: Russia imports these primarily for consumer market needs, indicating strong demand for Brazilian agricultural products.
• Concentration: The top 3 exports (HS 09, 02, 12) account for 78.53%, showing high trade concentration in agricultural goods.

Brazil Import Profile: What Does Brazil Buy from Russia

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) at 61.71% of total imports from Russia.
• Dependency Nature: Brazil relies heavily on Russian energy exports, reflecting a strategic energy security dependency.

Brazil - Russia Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity—Brazil exports agricultural goods (HS 09, 02) while importing energy (HS 27) and fertilizers (HS 31).
• Value Chain Position: Russia holds the higher value-add position in energy (HS 27) and chemicals (HS 31), while Brazil supplies lower-value agricultural products.

Import Analysis by Product: Russia to Brazil (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Brazil to Russia (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Brazil-Russia Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast for Brazil-Russia Trade

Brazil’s trade with Russia is poised for continued growth in 2025, driven by strong demand for agricultural exports (HS 09, 02) and persistent reliance on Russian energy (HS 27). The Q1 surge in Brazilian exports (+68.8% YoY) suggests untapped potential in Russia’s consumer market, while volatile energy imports highlight Brazil’s exposure to global price fluctuations. However, the widening trade deficit ($2.23B) signals a need for strategic rebalancing—either through export diversification or import substitution in critical sectors like fertilizers (HS 31).

Strategic Moves for Traders & Policymakers

• Expand Agricultural Exports: Capitalize on Russia’s demand for coffee and spices (HS 09) by securing long-term contracts with Russian buyers, reducing reliance on spot market volatility.
• Diversify Energy Suppliers: Mitigate dependency on Russian fuel (HS 27) by accelerating partnerships with alternative suppliers in the Middle East or North America.
• Invest in Fertilizer Production: Reduce import reliance (HS 31) by incentivizing domestic production or joint ventures with non-Russian chemical exporters to weaken strategic vulnerabilities.

Bottom Line: Brazil must leverage its agricultural strengths while addressing energy and fertilizer dependencies to rebalance trade with Russia. Immediate action will dictate whether this relationship evolves into mutual benefit or sustained asymmetry.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Brazil - Russia trade perform in 2025 Q1?

Brazil's exports to Russia grew strongly YoY, reaching $338.93M, while imports from Russia totaled $2.57B, showing mixed YoY performance.

What are the top exports from Brazil to Russia?

Brazil's top exports to Russia are HS 09 (Coffee, tea, and spices), HS 02 (Meat and edible offal), and HS 12 (Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits), accounting for 78.53% of total exports.

What does Brazil import from Russia?

Brazil primarily imports HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) and HS 31 (Fertilizers) from Russia, with energy products (HS 27) making up 61.71% of total imports.

What is the trade balance between Brazil and Russia?

Brazil recorded a trade deficit of $2.23B with Russia in Q1 2025, driven by heavy reliance on Russian energy imports.