Brazil - Russia Trade 2023 Q4: Surging Deficit

Key Market Takeaways: Brazil - Russia Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Brazil and Russia is marked by a deepening trade deficit for Brazil in Q4 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Brazil’s trade deficit with Russia hit $3.29B, driven by a 14.5x surge in imports ($3.53B) over exports ($243.88M). Russian shipments grew YoY (+80-104%), while Brazilian exports collapsed (-29-74%).
• Exchange Structure: Brazil - Russia trade statistics reveal a resource-for-energy dynamic. Brazil supplies agricultural goods (meat, oilseeds—87% of exports), while Russia dominates with mineral fuels (69% of imports).
• Strategic Interdependence: Brazil’s heavy reliance on Russian energy and fertilizers underscores a one-sided dependency, with limited diversification in trade flows.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Brazil-Russia Trade Trend in Q4 2023

Brazil Export Performance: Shipments to Russia

• Total Volume: $243.88M in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY declines deepened each month: -29.01% (Oct), -60.76% (Nov), -73.57% (Dec). No news context to explain the contraction.
• Key Volatility: November saw the sharpest MoM drop (-27.0%), followed by another -16.34% in December.

Brazil Import Performance: Sourcing from Russia

• Total Volume: $3.53B in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Strong YoY growth persisted: +80.44% (Oct), +91.69% (Nov), +103.98% (Dec). No relevant news to contextualize the surge.
• Key Volatility: December’s imports spiked 82.78% MoM to $1.68B, dominating the quarter.

Brazil - Russia Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Brazil ran a $3.29B trade deficit with Russia (Imports $3.53B > Exports $243.88M).
• Relationship Status: Heavy import dependence, with Russian shipments dwarfing Brazil’s exports by 14.5x.

Brazil Import Trend from Russia 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Brazil Export Trend to Russia 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Brazil Russia Trade Records

Brazil-Russia Top Trading Products in Q4 2023

Brazil Export Profile: What Does Brazil Sell to Russia

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 02 (Meat and edible meat offal) with a 37.87% share.
• Demand Driver: Russia imports these primarily for its consumer market, indicating strong demand for Brazilian meat products.
• Concentration: The top 3 exports (HS 02, 12, and 09) account for 87.23% of total exports, showing high trade concentration in agricultural goods.

Brazil Import Profile: What Does Brazil Buy from Russia

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils, and related products) with a 68.73% share.
• Dependency Nature: Brazil relies heavily on Russian energy exports, reflecting a strategic energy security dependency.

Brazil - Russia Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Brazil exports agricultural products (meat, oilseeds) to Russia, while importing energy (mineral fuels) and industrial inputs (fertilizers, metals).
• Value Chain Position: Russia holds the higher value-add position in energy and industrial goods, while Brazil dominates in agricultural exports.

Import Analysis by Product: Russia to Brazil (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Brazil to Russia (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Brazil-Russia Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Brazil’s trade deficit with Russia is likely to widen further in 2024, driven by sustained demand for Russian energy (HS 27) and weakening Brazilian exports. The sharp YoY declines in Brazil’s shipments to Russia—particularly in meat (HS 02)—signal eroding competitiveness or demand shifts, while Russia’s energy exports to Brazil show no signs of slowing. Without intervention, the current 14.5x import-to-export imbalance could worsen, exposing Brazil to supply chain vulnerabilities and price volatility in critical commodities.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Energy Suppliers: Reduce reliance on Russian mineral fuels by accelerating partnerships with alternative suppliers (e.g., Middle East, Africa) to mitigate geopolitical and pricing risks.
• Boost Export Competitiveness: Brazilian meat and agricultural exporters must target premium markets in Russia (e.g., halal-certified meat) and leverage trade promotions to counter declining volumes.
• Lock in Fertilizer Contracts: With Russia dominating Brazil’s fertilizer imports (HS 31), negotiate long-term agreements now to hedge against future price spikes and supply disruptions.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Brazil - Russia trade perform in 2023 Q4?

Brazil's exports to Russia fell sharply (-29.01% to -73.57% YoY), totaling $243.88M, while imports from Russia surged (+80.44% to +103.98% YoY), reaching $3.53B.

What are the top exports from Brazil to Russia?

Brazil's top exports to Russia are HS 02 (Meat and edible meat offal), HS 12 (Oilseeds), and HS 09 (Coffee, tea, and spices), accounting for 87.23% of total exports.

What does Brazil import from Russia?

Brazil primarily imports HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils, and related products) from Russia, making up 68.73% of total imports, reflecting a heavy reliance on Russian energy.

What is the trade balance between Brazil and Russia?

Brazil recorded a $3.29B trade deficit with Russia in Q4 2023, with imports ($3.53B) far exceeding exports ($243.88M). The gap widened due to surging energy purchases.