Brazil - Mexico Trade 2024 Q4: Surplus & Auto Ties

Key Market Takeaways: Brazil - Mexico Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Brazil and Mexico shows mixed growth with underlying volatility in Q4 2024.

• Brazil holds a $290M trade surplus, with exports ($2.03B) outpacing imports ($1.74B), though import demand from Mexico is rising.
• Brazil - Mexico trade statistics reveal intra-industry exchange, dominated by vehicles (HS 87) and machinery (HS 84), highlighting deep automotive and industrial supply chain ties.
• Strategic interdependence is strong, with Mexico supplying higher-value tech and Brazil exporting raw materials, creating a complementary economic dynamic.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Brazil-Mexico Trade Trend in Q4 2024

Brazil Export Performance: Shipments to Mexico

• Total Volume: $2.03B in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was mixed, with December showing a sharp 16.0% increase, offsetting October’s -7.73% decline.
  • No specific trade news to explain the volatility.
• Key Volatility: December saw a -17.51% MoM drop, the steepest monthly decline in the quarter.

Brazil Import Performance: Sourcing from Mexico

• Total Volume: $1.74B in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth remained positive (10.36% in November, 11.13% in December), though MoM trends weakened sequentially.
• Key Volatility: October’s imports surged 52.66% MoM, the highest monthly gain, before tapering off.

Brazil - Mexico Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Brazil recorded a trade surplus of $290M (Exports: $2.03B > Imports: $1.74B).
• Relationship Status: Brazil maintains a net exporter role, though import growth suggests rising demand for Mexican goods.

Brazil Import Trend from Mexico 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Brazil Export Trend to Mexico 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Brazil Mexico Trade Records

Brazil-Mexico Top Trading Products in Q4 2024

Brazil Export Profile: What Does Brazil Sell to Mexico

• Top Commodity: Vehicles (HS 87) dominate exports, accounting for 19.98% of total value.
• Demand Driver: Mexico imports Brazilian vehicles and machinery (HS 84, 15.84%) to support its industrial and consumer markets. Agricultural products like meat (HS 02, 15.12%) and coffee (HS 09, 6.95%) indicate food demand.
• Concentration: No single category exceeds 50%, but vehicles, machinery, and meat collectively make up 50.94% of exports.

Brazil Import Profile: What Does Brazil Buy from Mexico

• Top Commodity: Vehicles (HS 87) lead imports at 33.52%, reflecting Mexico’s strong auto industry.
• Dependency Nature: High-tech machinery (HS 84, 11.84%) and electrical equipment (HS 85, 16.72%) suggest reliance on Mexican industrial output.

Brazil - Mexico Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Intra-Industry Trade, with both countries exchanging vehicles (HS 87) and machinery (HS 84). This indicates deep supply chain integration, particularly in automotive and industrial sectors.
• Value Chain Position: Mexico holds a slight edge in higher-value exports (e.g., precision instruments, HS 90), while Brazil supplies more raw materials (e.g., ores, HS 26).

Import Analysis by Product: Mexico to Brazil (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Brazil to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Brazil-Mexico Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Brazil’s trade with Mexico is poised for steady growth in 2025, driven by sustained demand for vehicles (HS 87) and industrial machinery (HS 84). The intra-industry trade model suggests deeper supply chain integration, particularly in the automotive sector, but volatility in monthly export figures calls for caution. Brazil’s trade surplus will likely persist, though rising Mexican imports—especially high-value machinery and electronics—could narrow the gap. Exporters should anticipate stronger competition in key categories like meat (HS 02) and coffee (HS 09) as Mexican demand diversifies.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Long-Term Contracts: Brazilian meat and coffee exporters should secure agreements with Mexican buyers to stabilize revenue amid fluctuating demand.
• Optimize Automotive Logistics: With both nations exchanging vehicles (HS 87), streamlining cross-border shipping and JIT inventory systems will reduce costs and delays.
• Diversify Export Markets: While Mexico remains critical, Brazilian exporters must explore new markets for machinery (HS 84) to offset potential saturation in bilateral trade.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Brazil - Mexico trade perform in 2024 Q4?

Brazil exported $2.03B to Mexico and imported $1.74B, with mixed YoY growth (e.g., December +16.0%, October -7.73%) and a trade surplus of $290M.

What are the top exports from Brazil to Mexico?

Vehicles (HS 87), machinery (HS 84), and agricultural products like meat (HS 02) and coffee (HS 09) dominate Brazil’s exports to Mexico.

What does Brazil import from Mexico?

Vehicles (HS 87), high-tech machinery (HS 84), and electrical equipment (HS 85) are Brazil’s top imports from Mexico.

What is the trade balance between Brazil and Mexico?

Brazil recorded a trade surplus of $290M in Q4 2024, maintaining its net exporter role despite rising imports from Mexico.