Brazil - Mexico Trade 2024 Q2: Export Contraction & Auto Ties

Key Market Takeaways: Brazil - Mexico Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Brazil and Mexico shows signs of export contraction and import volatility in Q2 2024.

• Economic Pulse: Brazil maintains a $680M trade surplus ($2.15B exports vs. $1.47B imports), but exports fell sharply (-23.6% YoY in May), signaling weakening demand.
• Exchange Structure: Brazil - Mexico trade statistics reveal intra-industry trade, with vehicles (HS 87) dominating both sides. Brazil supplements this with agricultural exports (oilseeds, meat), while Mexico supplies high-tech machinery (HS 84, 85, 90).
• Strategic Interdependence: The relationship reflects integrated auto supply chains, with Mexico holding an edge in advanced manufacturing and Brazil leveraging commodity strengths.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Brazil-Mexico Trade Trend in Q2 2024

Brazil Export Performance: Shipments to Mexico

• Total Volume: $2.15B in Q2 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth turned sharply negative (-0.5% in April, -23.63% in May, -33.09% in June), signaling a sustained contraction. No news context provided to explain the downturn.
• Key Volatility: May saw the steepest MoM drop (-19.52%), followed by another double-digit decline in June (-15.5%).

Brazil Import Performance: Sourcing from Mexico

• Total Volume: $1.47B in Q2 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: Mixed YoY performance (+19.35% in April, -13.6% in May, +14.17% in June), suggesting volatile demand. No news context to clarify fluctuations.
• Key Volatility: April posted the strongest MoM growth (+17.48%), while May recorded the largest decline (-12.11%).

Brazil - Mexico Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Brazil holds a trade surplus of $680M (Exports: $2.15B > Imports: $1.47B).
• Relationship Status: Brazil maintains a clear net exporter role, though export contraction warrants monitoring. Import volatility indicates uneven supply or demand shifts.

Brazil Import Trend from Mexico 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Brazil Export Trend to Mexico 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Brazil Mexico Trade Records

Brazil-Mexico Top Trading Products in Q2 2024

Brazil Export Profile: What Does Brazil Sell to Mexico

• Top Commodity: Vehicles (HS 87) dominate at 20.95% of exports, valued at $450.28M.
• Demand Driver: Mexico imports Brazilian vehicles for consumer markets and industrial assembly. Agricultural products (HS 12, 17.56%) and meat (HS 02, 11.03%) suggest food demand.
• Concentration: No single category exceeds 50%, but vehicles, oilseeds (HS 12), and machinery (HS 84) collectively account for 52.1%.

Brazil Import Profile: What Does Brazil Buy from Mexico

• Top Commodity: Vehicles (HS 87) lead imports at 33.45% ($491.19M), reflecting Mexico’s auto manufacturing strength.
• Dependency Nature: High-tech imports (HS 84, 85, 90) indicate reliance on Mexican machinery and electronics for industrial inputs.

Brazil - Mexico Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Intra-Industry Trade, with both sides exchanging vehicles (HS 87) and machinery (HS 84, 85). This suggests integrated auto and industrial supply chains.
• Value Chain Position: Mexico holds a slight edge in high-value tech (HS 90 optics, 7.81% of Brazil’s imports), while Brazil leans on agricultural exports (HS 12, 02).

Import Analysis by Product: Mexico to Brazil (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Brazil to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Brazil-Mexico Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Brazil-Mexico trade relationship faces near-term headwinds as Brazil’s exports to Mexico show a deepening contraction (-33.09% YoY in June), while imports remain volatile. The intra-industry trade model, particularly in vehicles (HS 87) and machinery (HS 84, 85), suggests supply chain interdependence, but the current downturn signals potential demand softening or competitive pressures. Without mitigating factors, Q3 2024 could see further export declines, though Brazil’s trade surplus ($680M) provides a buffer. Traders should prepare for a period of consolidation, with recovery likely tied to broader industrial demand revival in Mexico.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Markets: Brazilian exporters of vehicles (HS 87) and agricultural goods (HS 12, 02) must aggressively target alternative markets to offset declining Mexican demand, leveraging trade agreements in Asia or Europe.
• Lock In Input Costs: Importers of Mexican high-tech machinery (HS 84, 85, 90) should negotiate long-term contracts to hedge against volatility, especially if industrial activity rebounds in H2 2024.
• Optimize Supply Chains: Firms engaged in cross-border auto trade (HS 87) must audit logistics for inefficiencies, adopting JIT inventory strategies to reduce costs amid shrinking margins.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Brazil - Mexico trade perform in 2024 Q2?

Brazil's exports to Mexico declined sharply (-23.63% YoY in May), while imports showed mixed growth (+19.35% in April, -13.6% in May). Total trade volume reached $3.62B ($2.15B exports, $1.47B imports).

What are the top exports from Brazil to Mexico?

Vehicles (HS 87, 20.95%), oilseeds (HS 12, 17.56%), and meat (HS 02, 11.03%) dominate Brazil's exports to Mexico, reflecting strong demand for automotive and agricultural products.

What does Brazil import from Mexico?

Brazil primarily imports vehicles (HS 87, 33.45%) and high-tech machinery (HS 84, 85, 90) from Mexico, highlighting Mexico's strength in auto manufacturing and industrial inputs.

What is the trade balance between Brazil and Mexico?

Brazil holds a trade surplus of $680M with Mexico in Q2 2024, though its export contraction suggests potential narrowing of the gap.