Brazil - Mainland China Trade 2024 Q4: Cooling Demand & Export Decline
Key Market Takeaways: Brazil - Mainland China Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Brazil and Mainland China showed cooling demand and persistent export declines in Q4 2024.
- $37.21B total trade volume with a $1.21B deficit for Brazil, as import growth slowed sharply (-38.6pp YoY) while exports deepened their contraction (-40.6% YoY in December).
- Resource-for-Tech exchange: Brazil’s top exports (80% concentration in ores, fuels, agri-products) fuel China’s industrial base, while 24.7% of imports are critical electrical machinery (HS85) – highlighting asymmetric bilateral trade data.
- Structurally complementary but imbalanced: China retains value chain dominance as Brazil’s raw material supplier role intensifies, with limited diversification.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Brazil-Mainland China Trade Trend in Q4 2024
Brazil Export Performance: Shipments to Mainland China
- Total Volume: $18.00B in Q4 2024.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY decline persisted across all months, worsening from -24.38% in October to -40.59% in December.
- No mitigating news context was provided to explain the contraction.
- Key Volatility: November saw the sharpest MoM drop (-15.12%), followed by December (-10.23%).
Brazil Import Performance: Sourcing from Mainland China
- Total Volume: $19.21B in Q4 2024.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY growth slowed sharply from +55.15% in October to +16.46% in December, indicating cooling demand.
- Key Volatility: October recorded the highest value ($7.40B) and MoM growth (+14.79%), while December hit the lowest ($5.68B).
Brazil - Mainland China Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Trade deficit of $1.21B (Imports $19.21B > Exports $18.00B).
- Relationship Status: Brazil remains a net importer from China, though the deficit narrowed from earlier 2024 trends (YoY import growth slowed, exports contracted further).
Brazil Import Trend from Mainland China 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct | 7.40B | 14.79% | 55.15% |
| Nov | 6.13B | -17.21% | 30.74% |
| Dec | 5.68B | -7.3% | 16.46% |
| Total | 19.21B | - | - |
Brazil Export Trend to Mainland China 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct | 6.90B | -7.15% | -24.38% |
| Nov | 5.85B | -15.12% | -33.51% |
| Dec | 5.25B | -10.23% | -40.59% |
| Total | 18.00B | - | - |
Get Historical Brazil Mainland China Trade Records
Brazil-Mainland China Top Trading Products in Q4 2024
Brazil Export Profile: What Does Brazil Sell to Mainland China
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS Code 26 (Ores, slag, and ash) with a 27.55% share of total exports to Mainland China.
- Demand Driver: Mainland China uses these raw materials for industrial processing, particularly in steel production and manufacturing.
- Concentration: The top 4 exports (HS Codes 26, 27, 12, 02) account for 80.03% of total exports, indicating high trade concentration in raw materials.
Brazil Import Profile: What Does Brazil Buy from Mainland China
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS Code 85 (Electrical machinery and equipment) with a 24.70% share of total imports from Mainland China.
- Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, as Brazil imports high-tech machinery and electronics for industrial and consumer use.
Brazil - Mainland China Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Brazil exports raw materials (ores, fuels, agricultural products) and imports high-value machinery and electronics.
- Value Chain Position: Mainland China holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced manufactured goods, while Brazil provides upstream commodities.
Import Analysis by Product: Mainland China to Brazil (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 85 | 4.75B | 24.70% |
| 84 | 3.48B | 18.13% |
| 29 | 1.56B | 8.10% |
| 87 | 1.16B | 6.04% |
| 38 | 929.50M | 4.84% |
| 31 | 787.24M | 4.10% |
| 39 | 747.68M | 3.89% |
| 72 | 632.78M | 3.29% |
| 73 | 472.84M | 2.46% |
| 90 | 435.98M | 2.27% |
Export Analysis by Product: Brazil to Mainland China (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | 4.96B | 27.55% |
| 27 | 4.01B | 22.30% |
| 12 | 3.05B | 16.96% |
| 02 | 2.38B | 13.22% |
| 47 | 1.44B | 8.00% |
| 52 | 439.63M | 2.44% |
| 72 | 364.78M | 2.03% |
| 24 | 283.07M | 1.57% |
| 17 | 263.38M | 1.46% |
| 25 | 124.90M | 0.69% |
Check Detailed Brazil-Mainland China Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast
The Brazil - Mainland China trade forecast for early 2025 suggests continued contraction in Brazilian exports due to weakening demand for raw materials, compounded by China’s slowing industrial growth. Import growth from China will likely stabilize at lower levels as Brazil’s domestic demand cools, narrowing the trade deficit further. However, structural reliance on Chinese high-tech imports and commodity-driven exports leaves Brazil vulnerable to global price volatility. Traders should prepare for prolonged stagnation unless policy shifts or new demand drivers emerge.
Strategic Moves
- Diversify Export Markets: Reduce dependence on China by targeting Southeast Asia and the EU for agricultural and mineral exports, mitigating risks from concentrated demand.
- Secure Long-term Tech Contracts: Lock in favorable terms for critical machinery (HS Code 85) imports to hedge against supply chain disruptions and price fluctuations.
- Invest in Value-Added Processing: Shift from raw commodity exports (e.g., ores) to semi-processed goods to capture higher margins and reduce China’s dominance in downstream manufacturing.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Brazil - Mainland China trade perform in 2024 Q4?
Brazil's exports to Mainland China declined YoY, totaling $18.00B, while imports slowed to $19.21B, resulting in a $1.21B trade deficit.
What are the top exports from Brazil to Mainland China?
Brazil's top exports to Mainland China include ores, slag, and ash (HS Code 26), fuels (HS Code 27), oilseeds (HS Code 12), and meat (HS Code 02).
What does Brazil import from Mainland China?
Brazil primarily imports electrical machinery and equipment (HS Code 85) from Mainland China, reflecting a dependency on high-tech goods.
What is the trade balance between Brazil and Mainland China?
Brazil recorded a trade deficit of $1.21B with Mainland China in Q4 2024, though the gap narrowed compared to earlier 2024 trends.
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