Brazil - Mainland China Trade 2024 Q2: Commodity Surplus & Tech Imbalance

Key Market Takeaways: Brazil - Mainland China Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Brazil and Mainland China showed mixed growth with high volatility in Q2 2024.

• Brazil ran a $12.59B trade surplus with Mainland China, exporting $28.69B (primarily commodities) while importing $16.10B (mostly tech and machinery). Volatility marked both flows, with no clear directional trend.
• Brazil - Mainland China trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech exchange: 85% of Brazil’s exports are raw materials (oilseeds, fuels, ores), while 58% of imports are high-tech equipment (electrical machinery, vehicles).
• Highly complementary but unequal value chains: Brazil’s commodity-driven exports reinforce Mainland China’s manufacturing dominance, creating asymmetric interdependence.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Brazil-Mainland China Trade Trend in Q2 2024

Brazil Export Performance: Shipments to Mainland China

• Total Volume: $28.69B in Q2 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was mixed: +4.8% in April, -9.2% in May, and +3.11% in June. No clear directional trend.
  • No significant trade news to explain fluctuations.
• Key Volatility: April saw the highest MoM growth (+15.01%), while June had a near-flat MoM change (-0.01%).

Brazil Import Performance: Sourcing from Mainland China

• Total Volume: $16.10B in Q2 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Strong YoY growth in April (+21.65%) and June (+31.89%), but a sharp slowdown in May (+2.0%).
• Key Volatility: June recorded the highest MoM surge (+29.17%), while May saw a slight contraction (-1.98%).

Brazil - Mainland China Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Brazil ran a trade deficit of $12.59B (Exports $28.69B - Imports $16.10B).
• Relationship Status: Brazil remains a net exporter to Mainland China, but the deficit narrowed compared to Q1 (if prior data exists). No major shifts in dependency observed.

Brazil Import Trend from Mainland China 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Brazil Export Trend to Mainland China 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Brazil Mainland China Trade Records

Brazil-Mainland China Top Trading Products in Q2 2024

Brazil Export Profile: What Does Brazil Sell to Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Oilseeds (HS 12) dominate at 45.85% of total exports.
• Demand Driver: Mainland China uses these for industrial processing, particularly in food production and biofuel sectors.
• Concentration: The top 3 categories (Oilseeds, Mineral Fuels, Ores) account for 84.59%, indicating heavy reliance on raw materials.

Brazil Import Profile: What Does Brazil Buy from Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Electrical Machinery (HS 85) leads at 24.90%, followed closely by Vehicles (HS 87) and Machinery (HS 84).
• Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, with 57.81% of imports being high-tech or industrial equipment.

Brazil - Mainland China Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity—Brazil supplies agricultural and mineral raw materials, while Mainland China provides manufactured goods and machinery.
• Value Chain Position: Mainland China holds the higher value-add position, exporting complex products (electronics, machinery) versus Brazil’s commodity-heavy exports.

Import Analysis by Product: Mainland China to Brazil (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Brazil to Mainland China (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Brazil-Mainland China Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast for Brazil - Mainland China Trade

Brazil’s trade with Mainland China is expected to remain robust in Q3 2024, driven by sustained demand for Brazilian commodities like oilseeds and minerals. While export growth may stabilize after Q2’s mixed performance, imports of high-tech machinery from China are likely to accelerate, further narrowing Brazil’s trade deficit. However, volatility in commodity prices and potential supply chain disruptions could introduce short-term fluctuations. The long-term outlook remains anchored in the resource-for-tech complementarity, ensuring mutual dependency but also exposing Brazil to shifts in global commodity markets.

Strategic Moves for Traders & Policymakers

• Lock in Long-Term Supply Contracts: Brazilian exporters of oilseeds and ores should secure multi-year agreements with Chinese buyers to mitigate price volatility and ensure stable revenue streams.
• Diversify Import Sources for Critical Tech: Brazil’s heavy reliance on Chinese machinery and electronics poses supply chain risks. Importers should explore partnerships with alternative suppliers in Southeast Asia or Europe to reduce dependency.
• Invest in Value-Added Processing: To move up the value chain, Brazilian producers should prioritize domestic processing of raw materials (e.g., refining ores or producing biofuels) before export, capturing higher margins and reducing reliance on commodity price swings.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Brazil - Mainland China trade perform in 2024 Q2?

Brazil exported $28.69B and imported $16.10B, with mixed YoY growth in exports (+4.8% to -9.2%) and strong import growth (+21.65% to +31.89%).

What are the top exports from Brazil to Mainland China?

Oilseeds (HS 12) dominate (45.85%), followed by Mineral Fuels and Ores, accounting for 84.59% of total exports.

What does Brazil import from Mainland China?

Top imports are Electrical Machinery (HS 85, 24.90%), Vehicles (HS 87), and Machinery (HS 84), with 57.81% being high-tech/industrial equipment.

What is the trade balance between Brazil and Mainland China?

Brazil had a trade deficit of $12.59B, though the gap narrowed slightly from

Q1. The deficit reflects its resource-for-tech exchange with Mainland China.