Brazil - Germany Trade 2023 Q4: Persistent Deficit & Volatile Trends

Key Market Takeaways: Brazil - Germany Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Brazil and Germany reflects a persistent trade deficit with volatile growth trends in Q4 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Brazil posted a $1.77B trade deficit ($3.13B imports vs. $1.36B exports), with exports showing erratic YoY swings (-24.26% in November, +4.03% in December) while imports declined consistently (-10% avg.).
• Exchange Structure: Brazil - Germany trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech model: Brazil supplies coffee (28.26% of exports) and ores, while Germany dominates with machinery (25.68% of imports) and pharmaceuticals.
• Strategic Interdependence: Highly complementary but imbalanced—Germany retains higher value-add in manufactured goods, while Brazil remains a critical raw material supplier.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Brazil-Germany Trade Trend in Q4 2023

Brazil Export Performance: Shipments to Germany

• Total Volume: $1.36B in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY decline of -13.7% in October, worsening to -24.26% in November, before rebounding to +4.03% in December. No news context to explain volatility.
• Key Volatility: November saw the sharpest MoM drop (-17.65%), while December posted a marginal recovery (+0.31%).

Brazil Import Performance: Sourcing from Germany

• Total Volume: $3.13B in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Consistent YoY declines: -10.63% (Oct), -8.82% (Nov), -10.34% (Dec). No news drivers cited.
• Key Volatility: October recorded the highest MoM growth (+5.11%), but November saw a steep contraction (-7.84%).

Brazil - Germany Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $1.77B (Imports $3.13B > Exports $1.36B).
• Relationship Status: Brazil remains heavily dependent on German imports, with exports failing to offset the gap.

Brazil Import Trend from Germany 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Brazil Export Trend to Germany 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Brazil Germany Trade Records

Brazil-Germany Top Trading Products in Q4 2023

Brazil Export Profile: What Does Brazil Sell to Germany

• Top Commodity: Coffee (HS 09) dominates at 28.26% of exports.
• Demand Driver: Germany imports raw materials like coffee and ores (HS 26) for industrial processing and consumer markets.
• Concentration: The top two categories (coffee and ores) account for 45.75%, showing moderate concentration.

Brazil Import Profile: What Does Brazil Buy from Germany

• Top Commodity: Machinery (HS 84) leads at 25.68% of imports.
• Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, with machinery, vehicles (HS 87), and pharmaceuticals (HS 30) reflecting industrial and healthcare needs.

Brazil - Germany Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Brazil supplies raw materials (coffee, ores) while Germany provides high-value machinery and chemicals.
• Value Chain Position: Germany holds the higher value-add position, exporting complex goods (machinery, pharmaceuticals) versus Brazil’s commodity-heavy exports.

Import Analysis by Product: Germany to Brazil (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Brazil to Germany (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Brazil-Germany Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Brazil-Germany trade relationship is likely to face continued volatility in the near term, with Brazil’s export recovery in December offering a fragile bright spot amid broader declines. Germany’s persistent demand for Brazilian commodities like coffee and ores will provide a floor for exports, but the structural trade deficit—driven by Brazil’s heavy reliance on German machinery and pharmaceuticals—will remain a challenge. Without significant shifts in export diversification or value-added production, Brazil’s trade balance with Germany may stagnate or worsen in 2024. Traders should prepare for price fluctuations in key commodity sectors, particularly if global demand softens.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Offerings: Brazilian exporters must reduce reliance on coffee and ores by expanding into higher-value processed goods (e.g., roasted coffee, refined minerals) to capture more margin and stabilize revenue streams.
• Lock in Long-Term Supply Contracts: Given Germany’s steady demand for raw materials, Brazilian suppliers should negotiate multi-year agreements to hedge against price volatility and secure stable cash flows.
• Reduce Import Dependency: Brazilian importers of German machinery and pharmaceuticals should explore alternative suppliers in emerging markets (e.g., India, South Korea) to mitigate cost pressures and diversify supply chain risks.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Brazil - Germany trade perform in 2023 Q4?

Brazil's exports to Germany totaled $1.36B, with mixed YoY growth (-13.7% to +4.03%), while imports from Germany reached $3.13B, showing consistent YoY declines (-8.82% to -10.63%).

What are the top exports from Brazil to Germany?

Coffee (HS 09) and ores (HS 26) dominate Brazil’s exports to Germany, accounting for 45.75% of total shipments.

What does Brazil import from Germany?

Brazil primarily imports machinery (HS 84), vehicles (HS 87), and pharmaceuticals (HS 30) from Germany, reflecting industrial and healthcare dependencies.

What is the trade balance between Brazil and Germany?

Brazil recorded a trade deficit of $1.77B with Germany in Q4 2023, driven by higher imports ($3.13B) than exports ($1.36B).