Brazil - Canada Trade 2023 Q4: Surplus Widens

Key Market Takeaways: Brazil - Canada Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Brazil and Canada strengthened in Q4 2023, with Brazil maintaining a robust trade surplus driven by resilient export demand.

• Economic Pulse: Brazil posted a $848.57M trade surplus with Canada (exports: $1.63B, imports: $781.43M), widening from Q4 2022. Export growth remained positive YoY despite monthly volatility.
• Exchange Structure: Brazil - Canada trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech complementarity—Brazil supplies raw materials (precious metals, 26.26% of exports) while importing critical inputs like fertilizers (48.74% of imports).
• Strategic Interdependence: The partnership hinges on Brazil’s commodity exports fueling Canada’s industrial needs, while Canada secures Brazil’s agricultural supply chain with high-value inputs.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Brazil-Canada Trade Trend in Q4 2023

Brazil Export Performance: Shipments to Canada

• Total Volume: $1.63B in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was positive in all months (Oct: +25.88%, Nov: +3.45%, Dec: +6.05%), indicating sustained demand despite volatility.
• Key Volatility: December saw a sharp 20.29% MoM rebound after November’s -12.09% drop, suggesting possible year-end inventory restocking.

Brazil Import Performance: Sourcing from Canada

• Total Volume: $781.43M in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY was mixed: October plunged -39.14%, but November rebounded (+14.03%). December’s -12.52% decline dragged the quarter’s overall performance.
• Key Volatility: October’s -39.14% YoY collapse stands out, though MoM swings were milder (peak drop: -7.93% in November).

Brazil - Canada Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Brazil held a trade surplus of $848.57M (Exports: $1.63B > Imports: $781.43M).
• Relationship Status: Brazil maintains a strong net exporter role, with exports more than double imports. The surplus widened from Q4 2022, driven by resilient export demand.

Brazil Import Trend from Canada 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Brazil Export Trend to Canada 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Brazil Canada Trade Records

Brazil-Canada Top Trading Products in Q4 2023

Brazil Export Profile: What Does Brazil Sell to Canada

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 71 (Pearls, precious stones, metals) at 26.26% of total exports to Canada.
• Demand Driver: Canada likely uses these raw materials for industrial processing, particularly in jewelry or high-tech manufacturing.
• Concentration: The top 4 exports (HS 71, 28, 17, 88) account for 78.14% of total exports, indicating high trade concentration.

Brazil Import Profile: What Does Brazil Buy from Canada

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 31 (Fertilizers) at 48.74% of total imports from Canada.
• Dependency Nature: This reflects a food security dependency, as Brazil relies on Canadian fertilizers for its agricultural sector.

Brazil - Canada Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Brazil exports raw materials (precious metals, agricultural products) and imports high-value inputs (fertilizers, machinery).
• Value Chain Position: Canada holds the higher value-add position, supplying critical industrial and agricultural inputs, while Brazil primarily provides commodities.

Import Analysis by Product: Canada to Brazil (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Brazil to Canada (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Brazil-Canada Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Brazil’s trade surplus with Canada is expected to widen further in 2024, driven by sustained demand for raw materials like precious metals (HS 71) and agricultural goods. However, import volatility—particularly in fertilizers (HS 31)—poses a risk, as Canada remains a critical supplier for Brazil’s agribusiness sector. Traders should anticipate tighter margins in commodity exports due to global price fluctuations, while Canada’s high-value inputs (e.g., machinery, tech) will likely maintain steady demand. The Brazil-Canada trade forecast hinges on Brazil’s ability to secure stable fertilizer supplies and Canada’s appetite for resource-driven imports.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Long-Term Fertilizer Contracts: Brazilian agribusinesses must mitigate supply chain risks by negotiating multi-year agreements with Canadian producers to stabilize input costs.
• Diversify Export Markets for Commodities: Reduce reliance on Canadian demand by targeting emerging markets in Asia and Europe, particularly for HS 71 (precious metals) and HS 17 (sugar).
• Invest in Value-Added Processing: Brazilian exporters should pivot toward semi-processed goods (e.g., refined metals, processed foods) to capture higher margins and reduce vulnerability to commodity price swings.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Brazil - Canada trade perform in 2023 Q4?

Brazil's exports to Canada grew positively YoY, reaching $1.63B, while imports totaled $781.43M, resulting in a trade surplus of $848.57M.

What are the top exports from Brazil to Canada?

Brazil's top exports to Canada are HS 71 (Pearls, precious stones, metals), HS 28, HS 17, and HS 88, accounting for 78.14% of total exports.

What does Brazil import from Canada?

Brazil primarily imports HS 31 (Fertilizers) from Canada, making up 48.74% of total imports, reflecting a food security dependency.

What is the trade balance between Brazil and Canada?

Brazil holds a trade surplus of $848.57M with Canada, widening from Q4 2022 due to resilient export demand.