Brazil - Argentina Trade 2024 Q1: Deficit & Volatility

Key Market Takeaways: Brazil - Argentina Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Brazil and Argentina showed sharp declines and volatility in Q1 2024.

• Economic Pulse: Brazil recorded a rare $40M trade deficit with Argentina ($2.81B exports vs. $2.85B imports), marking a reversal from its typical net exporter role. Double-digit YoY export drops (-25% to -30%) contrasted with a partial import recovery (+3.15% YoY in March).
• Exchange Structure: Bilateral trade statistics reveal intra-industry dominance, with vehicles (HS 87) accounting for ~30% of both flows. Brazil supplies machinery (HS 84) and plastics (HS 39), while Argentina provides grains (HS 10) and energy (HS 27).
• Strategic Interdependence: Tightly integrated auto supply chains coexist with complementary exchanges—Brazil’s higher-value exports offset by Argentine agricultural and fuel inputs.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Brazil-Argentina Trade Trend in Q1 2024

Brazil Export Performance: Shipments to Argentina

• Total Volume: Brazil exported $2.81B worth of goods to Argentina in Q1 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: Exports declined sharply YoY, with double-digit contractions in all months (Jan: -25.42%, Feb: -30.26%, Mar: -27.88%). No specific trade news explains this trend.
• Key Volatility: February saw the steepest YoY drop (-30.26%), while March posted the strongest MoM rebound (+18.45%).

Brazil Import Performance: Sourcing from Argentina

• Total Volume: Brazil imported $2.85B from Argentina in Q1 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: Imports showed mixed YoY performance (Jan: -3.35%, Feb: -23.23%, Mar: +3.15%), with a recovery in March. No news context is provided.
• Key Volatility: March had the highest MoM surge (+68.1%) and was the only month with positive YoY growth (+3.15%).

Brazil - Argentina Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Brazil recorded a slight trade deficit of $40M with Argentina (Imports: $2.85B > Exports: $2.81B).
• Relationship Status: Near-balanced trade, with Brazil marginally dependent on Argentine imports. The Q1 deficit contrasts with Brazil’s typical net exporter role in recent years.

Brazil Import Trend from Argentina 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Brazil Export Trend to Argentina 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Brazil Argentina Trade Records

Brazil-Argentina Top Trading Products in Q1 2024

Brazil Export Profile: What Does Brazil Sell to Argentina

• Top Commodity: Vehicles (HS 87) dominate exports, accounting for 31.37% of total value.
• Demand Driver: Argentina relies on Brazilian auto exports for consumer and industrial needs, reflecting integrated regional supply chains.
• Concentration: Trade is moderately concentrated, with the top 3 categories (HS 87, 84, 39) making up 47.26% of exports.

Brazil Import Profile: What Does Brazil Buy from Argentina

• Top Commodity: Vehicles (HS 87) also lead imports at 33.90%, indicating reciprocal trade in the auto sector.
• Dependency Nature: Agricultural products (HS 10, 04, 07) and energy (HS 27) highlight Brazil’s reliance on Argentina for food security and fuel.

Brazil - Argentina Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Intra-Industry Trade dominates, with vehicles (HS 87) traded both ways. Complementary flows include Brazilian machinery (HS 84) for Argentine agriculture (HS 10).
• Value Chain Position: Brazil holds a slight edge in higher-value exports (e.g., machinery, plastics), while Argentina supplies critical raw materials (grains, minerals).

Import Analysis by Product: Argentina to Brazil (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Brazil to Argentina (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Brazil-Argentina Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Brazil’s trade with Argentina is likely to remain volatile in Q2 2024, with exports under pressure due to weak demand and economic headwinds in Argentina. However, March’s rebound in imports suggests potential recovery momentum, particularly in the auto sector (HS 87) and agricultural trade. The bilateral deficit may persist unless Brazil accelerates export diversification or Argentina’s economic conditions stabilize. Traders should brace for uneven performance, with intra-industry trade in vehicles and machinery driving near-term activity.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Markets: Brazilian exporters must reduce reliance on Argentina by targeting other Latin American or global buyers for key products like vehicles (HS 87) and machinery (HS 84).
• Lock in Agricultural Imports: Given Argentina’s strength in grains (HS 10) and energy (HS 27), Brazilian importers should secure long-term contracts to hedge against price volatility and supply disruptions.
• Optimize Auto Supply Chains: Firms engaged in reciprocal vehicle trade (HS 87) should streamline cross-border logistics and adopt just-in-time inventory strategies to mitigate demand fluctuations.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Brazil - Argentina trade perform in 2024 Q1?

Brazil's exports to Argentina declined sharply YoY, totaling $2.81B, while imports from Argentina were $2.85B, showing mixed performance with a recovery in March.

What are the top exports from Brazil to Argentina?

Vehicles (HS 87) dominate Brazil's exports to Argentina, accounting for 31.37% of total value, followed by machinery (HS 84) and plastics (HS 39).

What does Brazil import from Argentina?

Brazil primarily imports vehicles (HS 87) from Argentina, along with agricultural products (HS 10, 04, 07) and energy (HS 27).

What is the trade balance between Brazil and Argentina?

Brazil recorded a slight trade deficit of $40M with Argentina in Q1 2024, contrasting with its typical net exporter role in recent years.