Argentina - Brazil Trade 2025 Q1: Surging Deficit

Key Market Takeaways: Argentina - Brazil Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Argentina and Brazil shows deepening import dependence amid stagnant exports in Q1 2025.

• Economic Pulse: Argentina posted a $1.39B trade deficit with Brazil ($4.23B imports vs. $2.84B exports), driven by surging Brazilian goods demand (+35-44% YoY) while Argentine exports declined (-9.83% YoY in January).
• Exchange Structure: Intra-industry trade dominates, with vehicles (HS 87) as the top commodity both ways (31% of Argentina’s exports, 41% of imports). Argentina - Brazil trade statistics reveal partial resource-for-tech complementarity, as Argentina supplies agricultural goods (HS 10, 04) and Brazil exports industrial inputs (HS 84, 85).
• Strategic Interdependence: Brazil holds a slight edge in higher-value exports, while Argentina’s trade profile leans on agriculture and lower-complexity goods, signaling asymmetric but tightly linked supply chains.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Argentina-Brazil Trade Trend in Q1 2025

Argentina Export Performance: Shipments to Brazil

• Total Volume: $2.84B in Q1 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY declines in January (-9.83%) and March (-10.1%) offset a marginal February rebound (+0.99%), signaling persistent demand or pricing headwinds.
• Key Volatility: February’s 33.88% MoM surge (to $1.04B) was followed by a March dip (-1.37%), suggesting short-lived recovery.

Argentina Import Performance: Sourcing from Brazil

• Total Volume: $4.23B in Q1 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Strong YoY growth across all months (ranging +35.11% to +44.42%), indicating heightened reliance on Brazilian goods.
• Key Volatility: March posted the highest value ($1.57B) and YoY growth (+44.42%), while January’s -6.35% MoM drop was the quarter’s only contraction.

Argentina - Brazil Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: $1.39B trade deficit (Imports $4.23B > Exports $2.84B).
• Relationship Status: Argentina’s deepening import dependence on Brazil contrasts with stagnant exports, widening the deficit. No policy shifts in Q1 to explain this divergence.

Argentina Import Trend from Brazil 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Argentina Export Trend to Brazil 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Argentina Brazil Trade Records

Argentina-Brazil Top Trading Products in Q1 2025

Argentina Export Profile: What Does Argentina Sell to Brazil

• Top Commodity: Vehicles (HS 87) dominate exports, accounting for 31.09% of total value.
• Demand Driver: Brazil likely imports Argentine vehicles for its consumer market, given their high share. Agricultural products (HS 10, 04, 07, 08) suggest Brazil relies on Argentina for food supplies.
• Concentration: The top 3 exports (HS 87, 99, 10) make up 68.79% of total exports, indicating high reliance on a few key categories.

Argentina Import Profile: What Does Argentina Buy from Brazil

• Top Commodity: Vehicles (HS 87) also lead imports, representing 40.77% of total value.
• Dependency Nature: Brazil supplies Argentina with industrial goods (HS 84, 85, 72) and raw materials (HS 26, 39, 40), indicating a mix of technology and resource dependency.

Argentina - Brazil Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Intra-Industry Trade dominates, with both countries heavily exchanging vehicles (HS 87). Brazil also supplies industrial inputs, while Argentina provides agricultural goods, suggesting partial Resource-for-Tech Complementarity.
• Value Chain Position: Brazil holds a slight edge in higher-value industrial exports (machinery, electronics), while Argentina’s exports lean toward agriculture and lower-complexity goods.

Import Analysis by Product: Brazil to Argentina (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Argentina to Brazil (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Argentina-Brazil Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Argentina’s trade deficit with Brazil is likely to widen further in Q2 2025, driven by sustained import demand for Brazilian industrial goods and stagnant export growth. The persistent intra-industry trade in vehicles (HS 87) suggests continued reliance on Brazilian supply chains, while Argentina’s agricultural exports face demand headwinds. Without policy intervention or diversification efforts, the trade imbalance will strain Argentina’s external accounts. Traders should prepare for volatility in key commodity flows, particularly in vehicle and agricultural sectors.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Markets: Argentine exporters must reduce dependence on Brazil by targeting new markets for agricultural goods (HS 10, 04, 07) to offset declining demand.
• Secure Long-term Input Contracts: Importers of Brazilian industrial goods (HS 84, 85, 72) should lock in pricing now to hedge against potential supply chain disruptions.
• Invest in Export Competitiveness: Argentina’s vehicle sector (HS 87) needs productivity upgrades to compete with Brazilian imports and reclaim market share.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Argentina - Brazil trade perform in 2025 Q1?

Argentina exported $2.84B to Brazil but faced YoY declines in January and March. Imports from Brazil surged to $4.23B, driven by strong YoY growth across all months.

What are the top exports from Argentina to Brazil?

Vehicles (HS 87) dominate, accounting for 31.09% of exports, followed by agricultural products (HS 10, 04, 07, 08). The top 3 exports make up 68.79% of total shipments.

What does Argentina import from Brazil?

Argentina primarily imports vehicles (HS 87, 40.77% of total), along with industrial goods (HS 84, 85, 72) and raw materials (HS 26, 39, 40).

What is the trade balance between Argentina and Brazil?

Argentina recorded a $1.39B trade deficit with Brazil in Q1 2025, as imports ($4.23B) far exceeded exports ($2.84B), widening the gap.