Argentina - Brazil Trade 2024 Q1: Resilient Exports, Collapsing Imports

Key Market Takeaways: Argentina - Brazil Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Argentina and Brazil shows near-balanced trade with resilient exports but collapsing imports in Q1 2024.

• Economic Pulse: Argentina posted a marginal $20M surplus ($3.03B exports vs. $3.01B imports), with exports showing mixed YoY growth while imports declined sharply (-36.09% in March).
• Exchange Structure: Intra-industry trade dominates, with vehicles (HS 87) leading both exports (26.16%) and imports (33.02%), reflecting deep supply chain integration. Argentina-Brazil trade statistics reveal moderate concentration in top 3 categories (66.32% of exports).
• Strategic Interdependence: The two economies are tightly linked through industrial complementarity, though Brazil captures slightly higher value-add in key segments like machinery (HS 84).

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Argentina-Brazil Trade Trend in Q1 2024

Argentina Export Performance: Shipments to Brazil

• Total Volume: $3.03B in Q1 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was mixed: January (+20.03%) and February (+16.32%) saw strong gains, but March growth nearly flatlined (+0.66%).
  • No specific trade news to explain the slowdown in March.
• Key Volatility: February had the highest MoM jump (+19.54%), while January recorded a sharp MoM drop (-16.95%).

Argentina Import Performance: Sourcing from Brazil

• Total Volume: $3.01B in Q1 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY declines persisted: January (-24.19%), February (-10.36%), March (-36.09%).
  • No relevant news to contextualize the contraction.
• Key Volatility: February saw the highest MoM increase (+15.95%), while March posted the steepest YoY drop (-36.09%).

Argentina - Brazil Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Marginal trade surplus of $20M (Exports: $3.03B vs. Imports: $3.01B).
• Relationship Status: Near-balanced trade, with Argentina maintaining a slight edge as a net exporter to Brazil. The YoY export resilience contrasts with collapsing imports, suggesting shifting demand or supply constraints.

Argentina Import Trend from Brazil 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Argentina Export Trend to Brazil 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Argentina Brazil Trade Records

Argentina-Brazil Top Trading Products in Q1 2024

Argentina Export Profile: What Does Argentina Sell to Brazil

• Top Commodity: Vehicles (HS Code 87) dominate exports, accounting for 26.16% of total value.
• Demand Driver: Brazil's consumer market and industrial demand for Argentine vehicles and auto parts drive this trade.
• Concentration: No single category exceeds 50%, but the top 3 exports (HS 87, 99, 10) collectively make up 66.32%, indicating moderate concentration.

Argentina Import Profile: What Does Argentina Buy from Brazil

• Top Commodity: Vehicles (HS Code 87) also lead imports, representing 33.02% of total value.
• Dependency Nature: Argentina relies on Brazilian vehicles, machinery (HS 84), and plastics (HS 39) for industrial and consumer needs, reflecting a mix of technology and raw material dependency.

Argentina - Brazil Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Intra-Industry Trade dominates, with both countries exchanging vehicles (HS 87) and machinery (HS 84), signaling deep supply chain integration.
• Value Chain Position: Brazil holds a slight edge in higher-value exports (e.g., HS 99, 10), while Argentina's imports skew toward industrial inputs, suggesting Brazil captures more value-add in certain segments.

Import Analysis by Product: Brazil to Argentina (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Argentina to Brazil (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Argentina-Brazil Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast for Argentina-Brazil Trade

The Argentina-Brazil trade relationship is likely to face continued volatility in Q2 2024, with exports stabilizing but imports remaining under pressure. Argentina’s vehicle exports (HS 87) will remain a key driver, but the sharp decline in imports from Brazil suggests supply chain disruptions or shifting demand dynamics. Without major policy shifts, the trade balance may tilt further in Argentina’s favor, though the intra-industry nature of trade signals deep interdependence. Traders should prepare for uneven growth, with Brazil’s industrial sector performance being a critical watchpoint.

Strategic Moves for Traders & Policymakers

• Diversify Export Markets for Vehicles: Argentina’s auto sector must reduce overreliance on Brazil by targeting new markets in Latin America and beyond, mitigating risks from demand fluctuations.
• Optimize Cross-Border Supply Chains: Companies exchanging machinery (HS 84) and auto parts should adopt Just-in-Time (JIT) inventory systems to counter logistical bottlenecks and cost pressures.
• Monitor Brazilian Industrial Policy Shifts: Argentina’s import contraction may reflect Brazil’s domestic economic challenges—traders must track regulatory changes or subsidies that could alter trade flows abruptly.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Argentina - Brazil trade perform in 2024 Q1?

Argentina exported $3.03B to Brazil in Q1 2024, with mixed YoY growth, while imports from Brazil fell sharply (-36.09% in March). The trade balance showed a marginal surplus of $20M for Argentina.

What are the top exports from Argentina to Brazil?

Vehicles (HS Code 87) dominate Argentina’s exports to Brazil, accounting for 26.16% of total value, followed by HS 99 and HS 10, making up 66.32% collectively.

What does Argentina import from Brazil?

Vehicles (HS Code 87) are also Argentina’s top import from Brazil (33.02%), alongside machinery (HS 84) and plastics (HS 39), reflecting industrial and consumer demand.

What is the trade balance between Argentina and Brazil?

Argentina recorded a trade surplus of $20M in Q1 2024, maintaining a slight edge as a net exporter despite collapsing imports from Brazil.